Table 3.
First month all-cause deaths |
Predicted first-year mortality, per 100 person-years |
Relative difference* | pinteraction† | Average annual percent change‡ |
Slope change; annual percent change before and after break§ |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1998–2001 (n=17 550) | 2012–15 (n=17 834) | 1998–2001 | 2012–15 | Before | Break | After | |||||
First-year rates¶ | |||||||||||
All | 2397 (14%) | 1967 (11%) | 24·5 (23·4 to 25·7) | 23·0 (22·0 to 24·1) | −6% | .. | −0·5% (−0·9 to −0·2) | −0·5% (−0·9 to −0·2) | N/A | −0·5% (−0·9 to −0·2) | |
Age, years | |||||||||||
<70 | 328 (10%) | 186 (5%) | 13·6 (12·1 to 15·1) | 8·9 (7·9 to 10·0) | −35% | 1 (ref) | −3·6% (−4·9 to −2·3) | −3·6% (−4·9 to −2·3) | N/A | −3·6% (−4·9 to −2·3) | |
70–79 | 684 (11%) | 301 (7%) | 21·8 (20·2 to 23·4) | 15·8 (14·4 to 17·3) | −28% | 0·113 | −2·3% (−3·0 to −1·6) | −2·3% (−3·0 to −1·6) | N/A | −2·3% (−3·0 to −1·6) | |
80–89 | 1004 (16%) | 901 (13%) | 32·6 (30·4 to 34·8) | 34·1 (31·9 to 36·3) | 5% | <0·0001 | 0·3% (−0·1 to 0·8) | 0·3% (−0·1 to 0·8) | N/A | 0·3% (−0·1 to 0·8) | |
≥90 | 381 (21%) | 579 (22%) | 58·1 (51·5 to 64·7) | 69·6 (63·2 to 76·0) | 20% | <0·0001 | 1·2% (0·0 to 2·4) | 1·2% (0·0 to 2·4) | N/A | 1·2% (0·0 to 2·4) | |
Sex | |||||||||||
Men | 1103 (13%) | 926 (10%) | 29·2 (27·4 to 31·0) | 23·5 (22·1 to 24·9) | −20% | 1 (ref) | −1·4% (−2·3 to −0·5) | −2·6% (−3·4 to −1·7) | 2009 | 0·8% (−1·7 to 3·3) | |
Women | 1294 (14%) | 1041 (12%) | 20·7 (19·5 to 22·0) | 22·0 (20·7 to 23·4) | 6% | <0·0001 | 0·3% (−0·5 to 1·1) | 0·3% (−0·5 to 1·1) | N/A | 0·3% (−0·5 to 1·1) | |
Socioeconomic status | |||||||||||
Most affluent | 375 (13%) | 367 (10%) | 23·8 (21·3 to 26·2) | 21·1 (19·1 to 23·1) | −11% | 1 (ref) | −0·8% (−1·2 to −0·4) | −0·8% (−1·2 to −0·4) | N/A | −0·8% (−1·2 to −0·4) | |
Most deprived | 476 (14%) | 310 (11%) | 27·6 (24·8 to 30·4) | 25·7 (22·9 to 28·5) | −7% | 0·46 | −0·2% (−1·2 to 0·8) | −0·2% (−1·2 to 0·8) | N/A | −0·2% (−1·2 to 0·8) | |
Place of diagnosis | |||||||||||
Community | 1449 (11%) | 606 (7%) | 20·8 (19·7 to 21·8) | 14·2 (13·2 to 15·1) | −32% | 1 (ref) | −2·7% (−3·2 to −2·2) | −2·7% (−3·2 to −2·2) | N/A | −2·7% (−3·2 to −2·2) | |
Hospital | 948 (19%) | 1361 (15%) | 38·8 (35·8 to 41·8) | 34·3 (32·3 to 36·2) | −12% | <0·0001 | −1·1% (−1·8 to −0·4) | −1·1% (−1·8 to −0·4) | N/A | −1·1% (−1·8 to −0·4) | |
Subsequent-year rates‖ | |||||||||||
All | 5475 (31%) | 5143 (29%) | 17·6 (17·3 to 18·0) | 14·7 (14·3 to 15·2) | −16% | .. | −1·3% (−1·6 to −1·1) | −1·3% (−1·6 to −1·1) | N/A | −1·3% (−1·6 to −1·1) | |
Age, years | |||||||||||
<70 | 682 (20%) | 479 (13%) | 8·0 (7·7 to 8·4) | 5·4 (4·9 to 5·9) | −33% | 1 (ref) | −2·9% (−3·6 to −2·1) | −2·9% (−3·6 to −2·1) | N/A | −2·9% (−3·6 to −2·1) | |
70–79 | 1638 (27%) | 872 (19%) | 14·6 (14·1 to 15·0) | 11·3 (10·5 to 12·0) | −23% | 0·001 | −1·9% (−2·2 to −1·6) | −1·9% (−2·2 to −1·6) | N/A | −1·9% (−2·2 to −1·6) | |
80–89 | 2274 (36%) | 2363 (35%) | 23·7 (23·0 to 24·5) | 20·8 (19·8 to 21·7) | −12% | <0·0001 | −0·9% (−1·3 to −0·6) | −0·9% (−1·3 to −0·6) | N/A | −0·9% (−1·3 to −0·6) | |
≥90 | 881 (49%) | 1429 (54%) | 38·3 (35·8 to 40·8) | 41·7 (38·8 to 44·7) | 9% | <0·0001 | 0·4% (−0·1 to 1·0) | 0·4% (−0·1 to 1·0 | N/A | 0·4% (−0·1 to 1·0 | |
Sex | |||||||||||
Men | 2630 (31%) | 2501 (27%) | 20·2 (19·6 to 20·7) | 15·1 (14·4 to 15·8) | −25% | 1 (ref) | −2·2% (−2·5 to −1·9) | −2·2% (−2·5 to −1·9) | N/A | −2·2% (−2·5 to −1·9) | |
Women | 2845 (31%) | 2642 (31%) | 15·8 (15·4 to 16·2) | 14·2 (13·5 to 14·8) | −10% | <0·0001 | −0·8% (−1·1 to −0·5) | −0·8% (−1·1 to −0·5) | N/A | −0·8% (−1·1 to −0·5) | |
Socioeconomic status | |||||||||||
Most affluent | 908 (31%) | 1000 (28%) | 16·2 (15·5 to 16·9) | 13·1 (12·2 to 14·0) | −19% | 1 (ref) | −1·4% (−2·1 to −0·7) | −1·4% (−2·1 to −0·7) | N/A | −1·4% (−2·1 to −0·7) | |
Most deprived | 1056 (32%) | 782 (29%) | 20·2 (19·4 to 21·1) | 16·9 (15·5 to 18·2) | −16% | 0·60 | −1·3% (−1·8 to −0·9) | −1·3% (−1·8 to −0·9) | N/A | −1·3% (−1·8 to −0·9) | |
Place of diagnosis | |||||||||||
Community | 3452 (27%) | 1656 (19%) | 16·7 (16·3 to 17·1) | 12·0 (11·5 to 12·5) | −28% | 1 (ref) | −2·4% (−2·7 to −2·1) | −2·4% (−2·7 to −2·1) | N/A | −2·4% (−2·7 to −2·1) | |
Hospital | 2023 (31%) | 3487 (38%) | 21·4 (20·6 to 22·2) | 18·7 (17·9 to 19·5) | −13% | <0·0001 | −1·0% (−1·3 to −0·7) | −1·0% (−1·3 to −0·7) | N/A | −1·0% (−1·3 to −0·7) |
Crude mortality in the first month after heart failure diagnosis is reported as n (%), with the denominator being the number of people diagnosed during that time period. Estimates have 95% CIs in parentheses. With the exception of age groups, all predictions are estimated at the mean population age (77·8 years). N/A=not applicable.
Relative percentage difference in mortality (per 100 person-years) between the first and second diagnosis calendar time periods.
p value for the difference in trend lines between groups.
Average annual percentage change in rates (per 100 person-years) for each increasing year of diagnosis.
Change in slope estimated using Joinpoint regression.
Among those who survived the first month after diagnosis.
Among those who survived the first year after diagnosis.