Table 3.
Predicted mortality after heart failure diagnosis, by population group and calendar year
|
First month all-cause deaths |
Predicted first-year mortality, per 100 person-years |
Relative difference* | pinteraction† | Average annual percent change‡ |
Slope change; annual percent change before and after break§ |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998–2001 (n=17 550) | 2012–15 (n=17 834) | 1998–2001 | 2012–15 | Before | Break | After | |||||
| First-year rates¶ | |||||||||||
| All | 2397 (14%) | 1967 (11%) | 24·5 (23·4 to 25·7) | 23·0 (22·0 to 24·1) | −6% | .. | −0·5% (−0·9 to −0·2) | −0·5% (−0·9 to −0·2) | N/A | −0·5% (−0·9 to −0·2) | |
| Age, years | |||||||||||
| <70 | 328 (10%) | 186 (5%) | 13·6 (12·1 to 15·1) | 8·9 (7·9 to 10·0) | −35% | 1 (ref) | −3·6% (−4·9 to −2·3) | −3·6% (−4·9 to −2·3) | N/A | −3·6% (−4·9 to −2·3) | |
| 70–79 | 684 (11%) | 301 (7%) | 21·8 (20·2 to 23·4) | 15·8 (14·4 to 17·3) | −28% | 0·113 | −2·3% (−3·0 to −1·6) | −2·3% (−3·0 to −1·6) | N/A | −2·3% (−3·0 to −1·6) | |
| 80–89 | 1004 (16%) | 901 (13%) | 32·6 (30·4 to 34·8) | 34·1 (31·9 to 36·3) | 5% | <0·0001 | 0·3% (−0·1 to 0·8) | 0·3% (−0·1 to 0·8) | N/A | 0·3% (−0·1 to 0·8) | |
| ≥90 | 381 (21%) | 579 (22%) | 58·1 (51·5 to 64·7) | 69·6 (63·2 to 76·0) | 20% | <0·0001 | 1·2% (0·0 to 2·4) | 1·2% (0·0 to 2·4) | N/A | 1·2% (0·0 to 2·4) | |
| Sex | |||||||||||
| Men | 1103 (13%) | 926 (10%) | 29·2 (27·4 to 31·0) | 23·5 (22·1 to 24·9) | −20% | 1 (ref) | −1·4% (−2·3 to −0·5) | −2·6% (−3·4 to −1·7) | 2009 | 0·8% (−1·7 to 3·3) | |
| Women | 1294 (14%) | 1041 (12%) | 20·7 (19·5 to 22·0) | 22·0 (20·7 to 23·4) | 6% | <0·0001 | 0·3% (−0·5 to 1·1) | 0·3% (−0·5 to 1·1) | N/A | 0·3% (−0·5 to 1·1) | |
| Socioeconomic status | |||||||||||
| Most affluent | 375 (13%) | 367 (10%) | 23·8 (21·3 to 26·2) | 21·1 (19·1 to 23·1) | −11% | 1 (ref) | −0·8% (−1·2 to −0·4) | −0·8% (−1·2 to −0·4) | N/A | −0·8% (−1·2 to −0·4) | |
| Most deprived | 476 (14%) | 310 (11%) | 27·6 (24·8 to 30·4) | 25·7 (22·9 to 28·5) | −7% | 0·46 | −0·2% (−1·2 to 0·8) | −0·2% (−1·2 to 0·8) | N/A | −0·2% (−1·2 to 0·8) | |
| Place of diagnosis | |||||||||||
| Community | 1449 (11%) | 606 (7%) | 20·8 (19·7 to 21·8) | 14·2 (13·2 to 15·1) | −32% | 1 (ref) | −2·7% (−3·2 to −2·2) | −2·7% (−3·2 to −2·2) | N/A | −2·7% (−3·2 to −2·2) | |
| Hospital | 948 (19%) | 1361 (15%) | 38·8 (35·8 to 41·8) | 34·3 (32·3 to 36·2) | −12% | <0·0001 | −1·1% (−1·8 to −0·4) | −1·1% (−1·8 to −0·4) | N/A | −1·1% (−1·8 to −0·4) | |
| Subsequent-year rates‖ | |||||||||||
| All | 5475 (31%) | 5143 (29%) | 17·6 (17·3 to 18·0) | 14·7 (14·3 to 15·2) | −16% | .. | −1·3% (−1·6 to −1·1) | −1·3% (−1·6 to −1·1) | N/A | −1·3% (−1·6 to −1·1) | |
| Age, years | |||||||||||
| <70 | 682 (20%) | 479 (13%) | 8·0 (7·7 to 8·4) | 5·4 (4·9 to 5·9) | −33% | 1 (ref) | −2·9% (−3·6 to −2·1) | −2·9% (−3·6 to −2·1) | N/A | −2·9% (−3·6 to −2·1) | |
| 70–79 | 1638 (27%) | 872 (19%) | 14·6 (14·1 to 15·0) | 11·3 (10·5 to 12·0) | −23% | 0·001 | −1·9% (−2·2 to −1·6) | −1·9% (−2·2 to −1·6) | N/A | −1·9% (−2·2 to −1·6) | |
| 80–89 | 2274 (36%) | 2363 (35%) | 23·7 (23·0 to 24·5) | 20·8 (19·8 to 21·7) | −12% | <0·0001 | −0·9% (−1·3 to −0·6) | −0·9% (−1·3 to −0·6) | N/A | −0·9% (−1·3 to −0·6) | |
| ≥90 | 881 (49%) | 1429 (54%) | 38·3 (35·8 to 40·8) | 41·7 (38·8 to 44·7) | 9% | <0·0001 | 0·4% (−0·1 to 1·0) | 0·4% (−0·1 to 1·0 | N/A | 0·4% (−0·1 to 1·0 | |
| Sex | |||||||||||
| Men | 2630 (31%) | 2501 (27%) | 20·2 (19·6 to 20·7) | 15·1 (14·4 to 15·8) | −25% | 1 (ref) | −2·2% (−2·5 to −1·9) | −2·2% (−2·5 to −1·9) | N/A | −2·2% (−2·5 to −1·9) | |
| Women | 2845 (31%) | 2642 (31%) | 15·8 (15·4 to 16·2) | 14·2 (13·5 to 14·8) | −10% | <0·0001 | −0·8% (−1·1 to −0·5) | −0·8% (−1·1 to −0·5) | N/A | −0·8% (−1·1 to −0·5) | |
| Socioeconomic status | |||||||||||
| Most affluent | 908 (31%) | 1000 (28%) | 16·2 (15·5 to 16·9) | 13·1 (12·2 to 14·0) | −19% | 1 (ref) | −1·4% (−2·1 to −0·7) | −1·4% (−2·1 to −0·7) | N/A | −1·4% (−2·1 to −0·7) | |
| Most deprived | 1056 (32%) | 782 (29%) | 20·2 (19·4 to 21·1) | 16·9 (15·5 to 18·2) | −16% | 0·60 | −1·3% (−1·8 to −0·9) | −1·3% (−1·8 to −0·9) | N/A | −1·3% (−1·8 to −0·9) | |
| Place of diagnosis | |||||||||||
| Community | 3452 (27%) | 1656 (19%) | 16·7 (16·3 to 17·1) | 12·0 (11·5 to 12·5) | −28% | 1 (ref) | −2·4% (−2·7 to −2·1) | −2·4% (−2·7 to −2·1) | N/A | −2·4% (−2·7 to −2·1) | |
| Hospital | 2023 (31%) | 3487 (38%) | 21·4 (20·6 to 22·2) | 18·7 (17·9 to 19·5) | −13% | <0·0001 | −1·0% (−1·3 to −0·7) | −1·0% (−1·3 to −0·7) | N/A | −1·0% (−1·3 to −0·7) | |
Crude mortality in the first month after heart failure diagnosis is reported as n (%), with the denominator being the number of people diagnosed during that time period. Estimates have 95% CIs in parentheses. With the exception of age groups, all predictions are estimated at the mean population age (77·8 years). N/A=not applicable.
*
Relative percentage difference in mortality (per 100 person-years) between the first and second diagnosis calendar time periods.
†
p value for the difference in trend lines between groups.
‡
Average annual percentage change in rates (per 100 person-years) for each increasing year of diagnosis.
§
Change in slope estimated using Joinpoint regression.
¶
Among those who survived the first month after diagnosis.
‖
Among those who survived the first year after diagnosis.