Table 4.
Assessment of the ability of CHA2DS2-VASc score to predict stroke and death at 1 and 2 year follow-up in the KorAHF study population, stratified according to prior diagnosis of atrial fibrillation
| Characteristics | Overall (n = 5158) | With AF (n = 2091) | Without AF (n = 3067) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR (95% CI) | P-value | HR (95% CI) | P-value | HR (95% CI) | P-value | |
| At 1 year | ||||||
| Stroke | ||||||
| Model 1 | 1.157 (1.070–1.253) | < 0.001 | 1.165 (1.043–1.302) | 0.007 | 1.145 (1.022–1.282) | 0.019 |
| Model 2 | 1.173 (1.072–1.283) | 0.001 | 1.162 (1.028–1.313) | 0.017 | 1.156 (1.006–1.328) | 0.040 |
| Model 3 | 1.151 (1.050–1.260) | 0.003 | 1.140 (1.005–1.290) | 0.042 | 1.145 (0.997–1.310) | 0.054 |
| C-index (95% CI)a | 0.595 (0.536–0.654) | 0.598 (0.538–0.658) | 0.593 (0.534–0.652) | |||
| Death | ||||||
| Model 1 | 1.212 (1.174–1.251) | < 0.001 | 1.180 (1.121–1.242) | < 0.001 | 1.233 (1.183–1.284) | < 0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1.196 (1.153–1.241) | < 0.001 | 1.165 (1.100–1.234) | < 0.001 | 1.213 (1.155–1.275) | < 0.001 |
| C-index (95% CI)a | 0.618 (0.599–0.636) | 0.600 (0.571–0.629) | 0.630 (0.606–0.653) | |||
| At 2 year | ||||||
| Stroke | ||||||
| Model 1 | 1.187 (1.105–1.275) | < 0.001 | 1.212 (1.097–1.340) | < 0.001 | 1.157 (1.044–1.283) | 0.006 |
| Model 2 | 1.210 (1.116–1.313) | < 0.001 | 1.237 (1.108–1.381) | < 0.001 | 1.144 (1.009–1.298) | 0.036 |
| Model 3 | 1.181 (1.088–1.280) | < 0.001 | 1.204 (1.077–1.350) | 0.001 | 1.128 (0.995–1.280) | 0.061 |
| C-index (95% CI)a | 0.626 (0.573–0.680) | 0.639 (0.585–0.694) | 0.613 (0.561–0.666) | |||
| Death | ||||||
| Model 1 | 1.227 (1.194–1.260) | < 0.001 | 1.207 (1.156–1.260) | < 0.001 | 1.239 (1.197–1.283) | < 0.001 |
| Model 2 | 1.210 (1.173–1.248) | < 0.001 | 1.192 (1.135–1.251) | < 0.001 | 1.216 (1.167–1.268) | < 0.001 |
| C-index (95% CI)a | 0.635 (0.612–0.658) | 0.626 (0.600–0.652) | 0.635 (0.612–0.658) | |||
Model 1: unadjusted model
Model 2: adjusted for previous chronic renal failure, ischemic heart disease, valvular heart disease, cardiomyopathy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), medications (Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor, Angiotensin receptor blockers, Βeta-blockers, Aldosterone antagonist, Loop diuretics, Digoxin, Warfarin, Aspirin, Statin), and smoking
Model 3: competing risk model adjusted for previous chronic renal failure, ischemic heart disease, valvular heart disease, cardiomyopathy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), medications (Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor, Angiotensin receptor blockers, Βeta-blockers, Aldosterone antagonist, Loop diuretics, Digoxin, Warfarin, Aspirin, Statin), and smoking after considering all-cause death as a competing risk
Abbreviations: AF atrial fibrillation, HR hazard ratio, CI confidence interval
a From time-receiver operative characteristic (ROC) curve analysis