Table 2.
Multivariate multi-state Markov model results of disease progression during ART, mortality and ART engagement from full sample (N=32,242)
| HET female | MSM | Black | Hispanic/Latino | PWID | No prior ART* | South | West | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reference | HET male | non-Hispanic white/others | non-PWID | Prior ART | Northeast | |||
| Transitions | aHR (95% CI) | aHR (95% CI) | aHR (95% CI) | aHR (95% CI) | aHR (95% CI) | aHR (95% CI) | aHR (95% CI) | aHR (95% CI) |
| CD4 improvement during ART | ||||||||
| <200 to 200–499 | 1.37 (1.24,1.51) | 1.25 (1.14,1.37) | 1.08 (0.98,1.19) | 1.06 (0.95,1.18) | 0.98 (0.88,1.10) | 1.39 (1.26,1.53) | 1.16 (1.07,1.26) | 1.05 (0.94,1.17) |
| 200–499 to ≥500 | 1.35 (1.26,1.45) | 1.10 (1.03,1.18) | 0.98 (0.92,1.05) | 0.93 (0.87,1.00) | 0.97 (0.90,1.05) | 1.31 (1.22,1.40) | 0.85 (0.80,0.89) | 0.84 (0.78,0.90) |
| CD4 deterioration during ART | ||||||||
| ≥500 to 200–499 | 0.71 (0.65,0.77) | 0.85 (0.79,0.91) | 1.13 (1.06,1.22) | 1.18 (1.09,1.27) | 1.23 (1.13,1.33) | 0.86 (0.78,0.94) | 1.18 (1.11,1.26) | 1.18 (1.09,1.28) |
| 200–499 to <200 | 1.12 (1.00,1.26) | 0.82 (0.74,0.92) | 1.11 (0.99,1.25) | 1.02 (0.90,1.15) | 1.23 (1.10,1.38) | 0.84 (0.73,0.95) | 1.01 (0.91,1.11) | 1.04 (0.92,1.19) |
| ART dropout | ||||||||
| ≥500 to off-ART | 1.04 (0.95,1.12) | 0.88 (0.81,0.95) | 0.97 (0.90,1.04) | 0.73 (0.67,0.80) | 1.36 (1.25,1.49) | 1.10 (1.00,1.20) | 2.45 (2.29,2.62) | 1.66 (1.51,1.82) |
| 200–499 to off-ART | 1.14 (1.04,1.23) | 0.89 (0.82,0.96) | 1.12 (1.03,1.21) | 0.91 (0.83,1.00) | 1.45 (1.34,1.58) | 0.92 (0.84,1.01) | 1.95 (1.81,2.10) | 1.41 (1.27,1.56) |
| <200 to off-ART | 1.00 (0.89,1.13) | 0.91 (0.82,1.02) | 1.23 (1.09,1.39) | 0.89 (0.77,1.03) | 1.42 (1.26,1.61) | 0.73 (0.64,0.84) | 1.91 (1.71,2.13) | 1.29 (1.10,1.51) |
| ART re-initiation | ||||||||
| Off-ART to ≥500 on-ART | 1.39 (1.27,1.52) | 1.25 (1.14,1.38) | 1.02 (0.94,1.12) | 1.20 (1.08,1.32) | 0.88 (0.79,0.96) | 1.14 (1.03,1.26) | 1.30 (1.21,1.41) | 0.49 (0.43,0.55) |
| Off-ART to 200–499 on-ART | 1.02 (0.93,1.11) | 1.02 (0.93,1.12) | 1.16 (1.05,1.27) | 1.37 (1.23,1.52) | 1.02 (0.93,1.12) | 0.86 (0.78,0.96) | 1.43 (1.32,1.55) | 0.59 (0.52,0.67) |
| Off-ART to <200 on-ART | 0.81 (0.73,0.90) | 0.82 (0.74,0.91) | 1.39 (1.24,1.57) | 1.55 (1.36,1.77) | 0.94 (0.84,1.05) | 0.60 (0.52,0.68) | 1.79 (1.62,1.99) | 0.94 (0.80,1.09) |
| Mortality | ||||||||
| ≥500 to death | 0.77 (0.51,1.15) | 0.80 (0.53,1.20) | 0.88 (0.61,1.26) | 0.50 (0.31,0.83) | 2.31 (1.62,3.29) | 0.76 (0.42,1.36) | 1.24 (0.89,1.73) | 1.05 (0.68,1.63) |
| 200–499 to death | 1.01 (0.75,1.38) | 0.70 (0.51,0.95) | 0.81 (0.60,1.08) | 0.54 (0.38,0.78) | 1.56 (1.18,2.06) | 0.91 (0.60,1.36) | 1.12 (0.86,1.46) | 1.28 (0.93,1.76) |
| <200 to death | 1.08 (0.85,1.37) | 1.12 (0.90,1.40) | 0.90 (0.72,1.13) | 0.77 (0.59,1.01) | 1.61 (1.30,2.00) | 0.93 (0.72,1.21) | 1.93 (1.56,2.40) | 1.37 (1.02,1.84) |
| Off-ART to death | 1.34 (0.80,2.22) | 1.21 (0.70,2.08) | 0.63 (0.39,1.01) | 0.74 (0.41,1.33) | 1.36 (0.86,2.16) | 0.75 (0.36,1.54) | 1.15 (0.76,1.76) | 0.38 (0.18,0.80) |
Bold indicates statistically significant adjusted hazard ratios at p<0.05
ART: Antiretroviral treatment; CD4: CD4 T-lymphocyte cell count per µL; dx: Diagnosis; aHR: adjusted hazard ratio; CI: confidence interval.
HET: heterosexual; MSM: men who have sex with men; PWID: people who inject drugs.
*
No prior ART utilization at study entry compared to prior ART utilization at study entry.