Table 3. Mean squared error of near-term forecasts.

ILIp was generated with ILIp alone and ILIp+GFT by appending corrected GFT to ILIp. The lower error in each row is underscored. P-values from a paired Wilcoxon signed rank test that the median of error in ILIp forecasts are greater than the median of errors in ILIp+GFT forecasts are also shown; cases where p > .05 are denoted by an asterisk (*).

	ILIp	ILIp + GFT	p
Overall	0.761	0.605	< .001
1 week ahead	0.327	0.294	.01
2 week ahead	0.611	0.459	< .001
3 week ahead	0.907	0.700	< .001
4 week ahead	1.199	0.968	< .001
National	0.452	0.367	< .001
Region 1	0.248	0.221	< .001
Region 2	0.605	0.503	.01
Region 3*	0.857	0.764	.25
Region 4	0.969	0.685	.03
Region 5*	0.526	0.582	.67
Region 6	1.554	1.233	< .001
Region 7	1.013	0.810	< .001
Region 8	0.445	0.316	< .001
Region 9	1.149	0.608	< .001
Region 10*	0.553	0.568	.76
2010/11	0.747	0.549	< .001
2011/12	0.268	0.229	< .001
2012/13*	1.035	0.866	.24
2013/14	0.643	0.549	< .001
2014/15	1.091	0.819	< .001