Table 4.
Five-year cumulative detection (risks) for CIN3, AIS, or cancer (CIN3+) for most important specific combinations of HPV-positive and/or cytology-positive results (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or more severe [ASC-US+]) by round of screening*
| Co-test result | Co-test No. † | Total No. | CIN3+ |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | 5-year risk‡, % (95% CI) | |||
| HPV-positive NILM | 1 | 34 019 | 1025 | 3.9 (3.7 to 4.2) |
| HPV-positive NILM | 2 | 9612 | 120 | 1.8 (1.5 to 2.2) |
| HPV-positive NILM | 3 | 3451 | 33 | 1.7 (1.1 to 2.4) |
| HPV-positive NILM | 4 | 941 | 3 | 1.0 (0.3 to 3.3) |
| HPV-positive ASC-US | 1 | 11 663 | 610 | 6.6 (6.1 to 7.1) |
| HPV-positive ASC-US | 2 | 3810 | 93 | 3.1 (2.5 to 3.8) |
| HPV-positive ASC-US | 3 | 1418 | 26 | 2.8 (1.8 to 4.2) |
| HPV-positive ASC-US | 4 | 434 | 5 | 2.8 (1.0 to 8.1) |
| LSIL | 1 | 10 633 | 434 | 5.2 (4.7 to 5.7) |
| LSIL | 2 | 3723 | 77 | 2.7 (2.2 to 3.5) |
| LSIL | 3 | 1534 | 18 | 1.7 (1.0 to 2.9) |
| LSIL | 4 | 467 | 2 | 0.9 (0.2 to 4.3) |
| ASC-H | 1 | 1871 | 313 | 19.7 (17.8 to 21.8) |
| ASC-H | 2 | 629 | 39 | 7.3 (5.3 to 10.0) |
| ASC-H | 3 | 230 | 8 | 4.2 (2.0 to 8.8) |
| ASC-H | 4 | 77 | 0 | 0.0 (0.0 to 100.0) |
| AGC | 1 | 1984 | 136 | 7.8 (6.6 to 9.1) |
| AGC | 2 | 1017 | 22 | 2.4 (1.61 to 3.7) |
| AGC | 3 | 417 | 7 | 2.2 (1.0 to 4.7) |
| AGC | 4 | 131 | 2 | 2.5 (0.6 to 10.4) |
| HSIL+ | 1 | 2180 | 944 | 50.0 (47.5 to 52.5) |
| HSIL+ | 2 | 273 | 61 | 24.7 (19.5 to 30.8) |
| HSIL+ | 3 | 94 | 13 | 14.4 (8.7 to 23.6) |
| HSIL+ | 4 | 22 | 2 | 10.0 (2.6 to 34.4) |
For the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th co-test following 0, 1, 2, and 3 consecutive negative co-test(s), respectively. AGC = atypical glandular cells; ASC-H = atypical squamous cells, cannot rule out HSIL; LSIL = low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion; NILM = negative for intraepithelial lesion or malignancy (cytology negative); HSIL+ = high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) or more severe.
The co-test was preceded by the co-test number-1 of negative co-tests.
Risk estimates for HPV-positive ASC-US+, HPV negative ASC-US+ were obtained by estimating risks within subpopulations grouped by screening protocols. Point estimates are a weighted average of subpopulation risks, weighted by the frequency in which they occur. Confidence intervals are derived by using survey methodology approaches to combine the variance estimates of the subpopulation risks.