Table 1.
Clinical inputs
| Variable | Value | Confidence interval or range for sensitivity analysis | Distribution for sensitivity analysis | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statin Treatment | ||||
| Relative risk of coronary event year 1 | 0.86 | 0.77–0.95 | Lognormal | 4 |
| Relative risk of revascularization year 1 | 0.95 | 0.84–1.08 | Lognormal | 4 |
| Relative risk of stroke year 1 | 0.96 | 0.79–1.17 | Lognormal | 4 |
| Relative risk of coronary event year 2 | 0.78 | 0.70–0.87 | Lognormal | 4 |
| Relative risk of revascularization year 2 | 0.76 | 0.66–0.87 | Lognormal | 4 |
| Relative risk of stroke year 2 | 0.75 | 0.62–0.90 | Lognormal | 4 |
| Relative risk of coronary event year 2+ | 0.71 | 0.59–0.84 | Lognormal | 4 |
| Relative risk of revascularization year 2+ | 0.73 | 0.59–0.9 | Lognormal | 4 |
| Relative risk of stroke year 2+ | 0.79 | 0.57–1.1 | Lognormal | 4 |
| Cardiovascular event distribution | ||||
| CHD death | 0.15 | 0.12–0.18 | Dirichlet | 27 |
| Myocardial infarction | 0.16 | 0.13–0.19 | Dirichlet | 27 |
| Angina | 0.38 | 0.30–0.46 | Dirichlet | 27 |
| Revascularization | 0.24 | 0.19–0.29 | Dirichlet | 27 |
| Stroke | 0.07 | 0.06–0.08 | Dirichlet | 27 |
| Adherence | ||||
| Probability of non-persistence year 1 | 0.23 | 0.19–0.28 | Beta | 6 |
| Probability of non-persistence year 2 | 0.22 | 0.18–0.26 | Beta | 6 |
| Probability of non-persistence year 3 | 0.16 | 0.13–0.19 | Beta | 6 |
| Probability of non-compliance year 1 | 0.25 | 0.20–0.30 | Beta | 6,30 |
| Probability of non-compliance year 2 | 0.25 | 0.20–0.30 | Beta | 6,30 |
| Probability of non-compliance year 3 | 0.25 | 0.20–0.30 | Beta | 6,30 |
| Probability of becoming compliant following MI | 0.85 | 0.68–1.00 | Beta | 10 |
| Probability of becoming compliant after CVD hospitalization | 0.63 | 0.50–0.76 | Beta | 10 |
| Probability of physician visit | 0.70 | 0.56–0.84 | Beta | 10 |
| Probability of becoming compliant following cardiologist visit | 0.74 | 0.59–0.89 | Beta | 10 |
| Probability of becoming compliant following primary care visit | 0.58 | 0.46–0.69 | Beta | 10 |
| Impact of adherence | ||||
| Relative risk of CVD event with non-compliance vs compliance | 1.35 | 1.21–1.50 | Lognormal | 15,19 |
| Relative risk of all-cause mortality with non-compliance vs compliance | 1.85 | 1.63–2.09 | Lognormal | 15,19 |
| Relative risk of CVD event with non-persistence vs persistence | 1.35 | 1.21–1.51 | Lognormal | 15,28 |
| Relative risk of all-cause mortality with non-persistence vs persistence | 2.78 | 1.96–3.72 | Lognormal | 15,28 |
| Health state utilities | ||||
| Starting utility secondary prevention | 0.704 | 0.575–0.843 | Beta | 31 |
| Post-second CVD event | 0.581 | 0.452–0.720 | Beta | 31 |