Table 3.

Association of annual LA change with incident AF in Cox regression models

	A. Model 1		B. Model 2		C. Model 3
	Clinical risk (CHARGE-AF)a + ΔLA variable		Model 1 + Baseline LA variable		Model 2 + LV MVR
Variable	HR (CI)	P-value	HR (CI)	P-value	HR (CI)	P-value
ΔLAVImax (mL/m2/year)	1.24	0.003	1.36	<0.001	1.39	<0.001
	(1.08–1.42)		(1.19–1.56)		(1.21–1.60)
ΔLAVIpreA (mL/m2/year)	1.26	0.009	1.41	<0.001	1.42	<0.001
	(1.06–1.50)		(1.19–1.67)		(1.20–1.69)
ΔLAVImin (mL/m2/year)	1.54	<0.001	1.64	<0.001	1.64	<0.001
	(1.30–1.83)		(1.40–1.91)		(1.40–1.92)
ΔTotal LAEF (%/year)	0.84	0.008	0.63	<0.001	0.62	<0.001
	(0.75–0.96)		(0.54–0.74)		(0.53–0.73)
ΔPassive LAEF (%/year)	0.96	0.632	0.63	0.001	0.60	<0.001
	(0.79–1.15)		(0.48–0.81)		(0.45–0.79)
ΔActive LAEF (%/year)	0.87	0.018	0.67	<0.001	0.67	<0.001
	(0.77–0.98)		(0.57–0.79)		(0.57–0.79)
ΔPeak LA strain (%/year)	0.90	0.048	0.72	<0.001	0.70	<0.001
	(0.81–0.99)		(0.62–0.85)		(0.59–0.83)
ΔLAVImin (per 1-SD)	1.42	<0.001	1.49	<0.001	1.49	<0.001
	(1.24–1.63)		(1.31–1.69)		(1.31–1.69)
−ΔTotal LAEF (per 1-SD)	1.26	0.008	1.86	<0.001	1.91	<0.001
	(1.06–1.49)		(1.50–2.31)		(1.53–2.38)
−ΔPeak LA strain (per 1-SD)	1.20	0.048	1.71	<0.001	1.81	<0.001
	(1.01–1.43)		(1.31–2.24)		(1.36–2.41)

Δ, Annual change; AF, atrial fibrillation; EF, emptying fractions; Indexed volumes: maximum (VImax), pre-atrial (VIpreA), minimum (VImin); LA, left atrial.

^aCHARGE-AF risk model: age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, antihypertensive medication, smoking status, diabetes, myocardial infarction, and congestive heart failure by the second study.²⁴