Table 1.
Predicted prevalence rates between 2003 and 2030 through four forecasting methods.
| Year | MAM | CI (80%) | CI (95%) | DM | PI (80%) | PI (95%) | ETSM | PI (80%) | PI (95%) | TM | PI (80%) | PI (95%) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 86 | 86 | 86 | 86 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2004 | 99 | 99 | 99 | 99 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2005 | 121 | 121 | 121 | 121 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 135 | 135 | 135 | 135 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 161 | 148.0 | 174.0 | 141.1 | 180.9 | 161 | 154.1 | 167.9 | 150.4 | 171.6 | 159 | 149.8 | 168.2 | 145.0 | 173.0 | 154 | 136.0 | 171.6 | 126.5 | 181.1 |
| 2009 | 177 | 162.9 | 190.1 | 155.7 | 197.3 | 176 | 164.4 | 187.6 | 158.3 | 193.7 | 172 | 159.1 | 184.9 | 152.2 | 191.8 | 162 | 136.4 | 186.8 | 123.0 | 200.2 |
| 2010 | 190 | 175.8 | 204.9 | 168.1 | 212.7 | 191 | 174.9 | 207.1 | 166.4 | 215.6 | 185 | 169.1 | 200.9 | 160.8 | 209.2 | 169 | 138.5 | 200.3 | 122.1 | 216.7 |
| 2011 | 204 | 188.8 | 219.6 | 180.7 | 227.8 | 206 | 185.5 | 226.5 | 174.6 | 237.4 | 198 | 179.7 | 216.3 | 170.0 | 226.0 | 177 | 141.5 | 212.9 | 122.6 | 231.8 |
| 2012 | 219 | 202.6 | 235.0 | 194.0 | 243.5 | 221 | 196.0 | 246.0 | 182.8 | 259.2 | 211 | 190.5 | 231.5 | 179.7 | 242.3 | 185 | 145.1 | 224.9 | 124.0 | 246.0 |
| 2013 | 233 | 216.2 | 250.2 | 207.2 | 259.2 | 236 | 206.6 | 265.4 | 191.1 | 280.9 | 224 | 201.6 | 246.4 | 189.7 | 258.3 | 193 | 149.1 | 236.5 | 125.9 | 259.7 |
| 2014 | 247 | 229.6 | 265.2 | 220.2 | 274.6 | 251 | 217.2 | 284.8 | 199.4 | 302.6 | 237 | 212.8 | 261.2 | 200.0 | 274.0 | 201 | 153.4 | 247.8 | 128.4 | 272.8 |
| 2015 | 262 | 243.1 | 280.2 | 233.3 | 290.0 | 266 | 227.8 | 304.2 | 207.6 | 324.4 | 250 | 224.1 | 275.9 | 210.4 | 289.6 | 208 | 157.9 | 258.9 | 131.2 | 285.6 |
| 2016 | 276 | 256.8 | 295.2 | 246.6 | 305.4 | 281 | 238.4 | 323.6 | 215.9 | 346.1 | 263 | 235.5 | 290.5 | 221.0 | 305.0 | 216 | 162.7 | 269.7 | 134.3 | 298.1 |
| 2017 | 290 | 270.4 | 310.3 | 259.8 | 320.8 | 296 | 249.1 | 342.9 | 224.2 | 367.8 | 276 | 247.1 | 304.9 | 231.7 | 320.3 | 224 | 167.6 | 280.4 | 137.7 | 310.3 |
| 2018 | 305 | 284.0 | 325.2 | 273.1 | 336.1 | 311 | 259.7 | 362.3 | 232.5 | 389.5 | 289 | 258.6 | 319.4 | 242.6 | 335.4 | 232 | 172.6 | 291.0 | 141.3 | 322.3 |
| 2019 | 319 | 297.6 | 340.2 | 286.4 | 351.4 | 326 | 270.3 | 381.7 | 240.8 | 411.2 | 302 | 270.3 | 333.7 | 253.5 | 350.5 | 240 | 177.8 | 301.4 | 145.0 | 334.2 |
| 2020 | 333 | 311.3 | 355.1 | 299.7 | 366.7 | 341 | 280.9 | 401.1 | 249.1 | 432.9 | 315 | 282.0 | 348.0 | 264.5 | 365.5 | 247 | 183.0 | 311.8 | 149.0 | 345.8 |
| 2021 | 348 | 325.0 | 370.0 | 313.0 | 382.0 | 356 | 291.5 | 420.5 | 257.4 | 454.6 | 328 | 293.8 | 362.2 | 275.6 | 380.4 | 255 | 188.4 | 322.0 | 153.1 | 357.3 |
| 2022 | 362 | 338.7 | 384.9 | 326.4 | 397.2 | 371 | 302.1 | 439.9 | 265.7 | 476.3 | 341 | 305.6 | 376.4 | 286.8 | 395.2 | 263 | 193.9 | 332.1 | 157.3 | 368.7 |
| 2023 | 376 | 352.4 | 399.8 | 339.8 | 412.4 | 386 | 312.8 | 459.2 | 274.0 | 498.0 | 354 | 317.4 | 390.6 | 298.0 | 410.0 | 271 | 199.4 | 342.2 | 161.6 | 380.0 |
| 2024 | 390 | 366.1 | 414.7 | 353.2 | 427.6 | 401 | 323.4 | 478.6 | 282.3 | 519.7 | 367 | 329.3 | 404.7 | 309.3 | 424.7 | 279 | 205.0 | 352.2 | 166.0 | 391.2 |
| 2025 | 405 | 379.8 | 429.6 | 366.7 | 442.7 | 416 | 334.0 | 498.0 | 290.6 | 541.4 | 380 | 341.2 | 418.8 | 320.6 | 439.4 | 286 | 210.7 | 362.1 | 170.6 | 402.2 |
| 2026 | 419 | 393.6 | 444.4 | 380.1 | 457.9 | 431 | 344.6 | 517.4 | 298.9 | 563.1 | 393 | 353.1 | 432.9 | 332.0 | 454.0 | 294 | 216.4 | 372.0 | 175.2 | 413.2 |
| 2027 | 433 | 407.3 | 459.3 | 393.6 | 473.0 | 446 | 355.2 | 536.8 | 307.2 | 584.8 | 406 | 365.1 | 446.9 | 343.4 | 468.6 | 302 | 222.2 | 381.8 | 179.9 | 424.1 |
| 2028 | 448 | 421.1 | 474.1 | 407.1 | 488.1 | 461 | 365.8 | 556.2 | 315.5 | 606.5 | 419 | 377.1 | 460.9 | 354.9 | 483.1 | 310 | 228.0 | 391.6 | 184.7 | 434.9 |
| 2029 | 462 | 434.9 | 488.9 | 420.6 | 503.2 | 476 | 376.5 | 575.5 | 323.8 | 628.2 | 432 | 389.1 | 474.9 | 366.3 | 497.7 | 318 | 233.9 | 401.3 | 189.6 | 445.6 |
| 2030 | 476 | 448.7 | 503.7 | 434.1 | 518.3 | 491 | 387.1 | 594.9 | 332.1 | 649.9 | 445 | 401.1 | 488.9 | 377.9 | 512.1 | 325 | 239.8 | 411.0 | 194.5 | 456.3 |
CI, confidence interval; DM, drift method; ETSM, ETS method; MA, moving average method; PI, prediction interval; TM, theta method.