4.

Hazard ratios: MISCAN-Colon predictions for future follow up results NORCCAP trial.

Follow up years*	End of data retrieval **	Overall CRC mortality			Overall CRC incidence			Distal CRC mortality			Distal CRC incidence
		HR	Control group	Screen group	HR	Control group	Screen group	HR	Control group	Screen group	HR	Control group	Screen group
10–12	2011	0.68	40.5	27.8	0.85	142	120	0.62	21.6	13.4	0.82	78.2	64.0
11–13	2012	0.69	43.2	29.8	0.84	147	123	0.63	23.0	14.4	0.81	81.4	65.8
12–14	2013	0.70	45.8	31.9	0.83	153	127	0.63	24.4	15.5	0.80	84.5	67.8
13–15	2014	0.70	48.4	34.1	0.84	159	133	0.64	25.8	16.6	0.80	87.7	70.5
14–16	2015	0.71	51.1	36.4	0.84	164	138	0.65	27.1	17.7	0.81	90.8	73.2
15–17	2016	0.72	53.8	38.7	0.84	170	143	0.66	28.6	18.9	0.81	93.9	75.8
16–18	2017	0.73	56.5	41.0	0.84	175	147	0.67	30.1	20.1	0.81	96.9	78.1

Abbreviations: CRC, colorectal cancer; NORCCAP, Norwegian Colorectal Cancer Prevention; MISCAN, Microsimulation Screening Analysis; HR, hazard ratio

Numbers under control group and screen group presented per 100 000 person years.

^*The screening intervention was performed in 1999, 2000 and 2001. Since the closure date for data retrieval is the same for all participants, the number of follow-up years differs among the participants.

^**Last day of the year