Table 2.

Demographic, psychological, and behavioral details of Dataset 2^a

	Controls (all)	Scz	Controls (subset)
N	111	56	60
Age (yr)	32.8 (11.5)	45.3 (8.8)	39.5 (11.4)
Gender	45 M, 66 F	38 M, 18 F	40 M, 20 F
NARTb	112 (6.9)	109 (8.2)	112 (7.5)
Working memory (LNS)c	16.2 (2.8)	10.3 (4.2)	16.4 (2.7)
Schizotypy
SPQ, cognitive	2.8 (1.9)	4.0 (2.6)	3.1 (2)
SPQ, interpers	3.2 (2.2)	5.3 (2.6)	3.2 (2.2)
SPQ, disorg	2.1 (1.7)	2.7 (1.9)	1.9 (1.8)
SPQ, totald	8.2 (1.3)	12 (5.3)	8.2 (4.4)
Diagnoses	—	56 Scz	—
PANSS, gen	—	32.6 (9.2)	—
PANSS, pos	—	15.9 (5.8)	—
PANSS, neg	—	15.9 (6.2)	—
PANSS, total	—	64.4 (17.3)	—
Initial certainty (all, 1 bead)e	0.67 (0.13)	0.71 (0.14)	0.68 (0.14)
Initial certainty (all, 2–3 beads)f	0.7 (0.12)	0.71 (0.12)	0.71 (0.13)
Disconfirmatory updating (all sequences)g	−0.16 (0.17)	−0.23 (0.22)	−0.19 (0.2)
Final certainty Sequence Ah	0.88 (0.16)	0.77 (0.25)	0.86 (0.18)
Final certainty Sequence Di	0.12 (0.18)	0.25 (0.24)	0.16 (0.2)

^aIn dataset 2, IQ was estimated using the National Adult Reading Test (NART) (Nelson, 1982) and working memory using the Letter Number Sequencing task (LNS) from the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-III (Wechsler, 1997). Schizotypy was assessed using the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire (SPQ) (Raine, 1991), and symptoms using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) (Kay et al., 1987). As can be seen in Figure 2, the Scz group showed greater initial certainty (1 bead) in Sequences A and B (Welch's t₍₉₄₎ = 2.8, p = 0.007, Cohen's d = 0.47; Welch's t₍₉₇₎ = 3, p = 0.004, Cohen's d = 0.5, respectively) but not Sequences C and D (Welch's t₍₈₇₎ = 0.5, p = 0.6, Cohen's d = 0.09; Welch's t₍₉₀₎ = −0.34, p = 0.73, Cohen's d = 0.06, respectively).

^bControls (all): Welch's t_(95.1) = 2.27, p = 0.026, Cohen's d = 0.38; Controls (subset): Welch's t₍₁₁₁₎ = 1.95, p = 0.053, Cohen's d = 0.36.

^cControls (all): Welch's t₍₈₁₎ = 9.57, p = 10⁻¹⁴, Cohen's d = 1.66; Controls (subset): Welch's t_(93.6) = 9.25, p = 10⁻¹⁵, Cohen's d = 1.73.

^dControls (all): Welch's t_(92.4) = −4.64, p = 10⁻⁵, Cohen's d = 0.78; Controls (subset): Welch'st₍₁₀₇₎ = −4.19, p = 10⁻⁵, Cohen's d = 0.78.

^eControls (all): Welch's t₍₁₁₀₎ = −1.9, p = 0.059, Cohen's d = 0.32; Controls (subset): Welch's t₍₁₁₀₎ = −1.1, p = 0.28, Cohen's d = 0.2.

^fControls (all): Welch's t_(109.1) = −0.76, p = 0.45, Cohen's d = 0.12; Controls (subset): Welch's t_(113.9) = −0.19, p = 0.85, Cohen's d = 0.03.

^gControls (all): Welch's t_(88.2) = 2.09, p = 0.04, Cohen's d = 0.36; Controls (subset): Welch's t_(110.4) = −0.94, p = 0.35, Cohen's d = 0.18.

^hControls (all): Welch's t_(80.1) = 2.99, p = 0.0038, Cohen's d = 0.56; Controls (subset): Welch's t_(98.7) = 2.18, p = 0.032, Cohen's d = 0.41.

ⁱControls (all): Welch's t_(85.5) = −3.41, p = 0.001, Cohen's d = 0.62; Controls (subset): Welch's t₍₁₀₆₎ = −2.21, p = 0.029, Cohen's d = 0.42.