Table 2.
Estimated weekly call volume to a national nurse triage line (20% attack rate; 1968- and 1957-like pandemics)a
| Types of Calls | Calls, by Type, at Peak Week of Pandemic | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1968-like Pandemicb | 1957-like Pandemicb | |||
| Low Estimatea,c | High Estimatea,c | Low Estimatea,c | High Estimatea,c | |
| Information only calls | 623,856 | 1,416,609 | 1,169,731 | 2,833,217 |
| Symptomatic calls | 580,404 | 1,317,939 | 1,088,257 | 2,635,879 |
| Subtotals: Calls requiring response from information specialist or healthcare professionald | 1,204,260 | 2,734,548 | 2,257,988 | 5,469,096 |
| Calls ended after recorded message or ended prematurely | 347,621 | 789,354 | 651,790 | 1,578,708 |
| Totals all calls at peak | 1,551,882 | 3,523,902 | 2,909,778 | 7,047,804 |
Using a seed starting of 10 cases, duration of pandemic lasts up to 45 weeks, for a 20% attack rate (Appendix 2). Estimates based on US population size of approximately 323 million (Table 1).
1968-like pandemic = severity level 3; 1957-like pandemic = severity level 4 (Table 1).
Low and high estimates for call-to-hospitalization ratio model derived from lower and upper estimates of hospitalization rates, which depend on influenza severity rate, or pandemic type (Table 1).
Subtotals represent those calls to a national nurse triage line for caller seeking either additional information regarding pandemic influenza or those with symptoms seeking advice regarding treatment. Such calls require operator assistance and response.