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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2019 Aug 23.
Published in final edited form as: Health Secur. 2018 Sep-Oct;16(5):334–340. doi: 10.1089/hs.2018.0061

Table 3.

Estimated weekly call volume to a national nurse triage line (30% attack rate; 1968- and 1957-like pandemics)a

Types of Calls Calls, by Type, at Peak Week of Pandemic
1968-like Pandemicb 1957-like Pandemicb
Low Estimatea,c High Estimatea,c Low Estimatea,c High Estimatea,c
Information-only calls 1,569,814 3,564,621 2,943,400 7,129,241
Symptomatic calls 1,460,473 3,316,339 2,738,387 6,632,677
Subtotals: Calls requiring response from information specialist or healthcare professionald 3,030,287 6,880,959 5,681,788 13,761,918
Calls ended after recorded message or ended prematurely 874,722 1,986,256 1,640,104 3,972,513
Totals all calls at peak 3,905,009 8,867,215 7,321,892 17,734,431
a

Using a seed starting of 10 cases, duration of pandemic lasts up to 32 weeks for a 30% attack rate (Appendix 2). Estimates based on US population size of approximately 323 million (Table 1).

b

1968-like pandemic = severity level 3; 1957-like pandemic = severity level 4 (Table 1).

c

Low and high estimates for call-to-hospitalization ratio model derived from lower and upper estimates of hospitalization rates, which depend on influenza severity rate, or pandemic type (Table 1).

d

Subtotals represent those calls to a national nurse triage line for caller seeking either additional information regarding pandemic influenza or those with symptoms seeking advice regarding treatment. Such calls require assistance and response from an information specialist or healthcare professional.