Table 3.
Estimated weekly call volume to a national nurse triage line (30% attack rate; 1968- and 1957-like pandemics)a
| Types of Calls | Calls, by Type, at Peak Week of Pandemic | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1968-like Pandemicb | 1957-like Pandemicb | |||
| Low Estimatea,c | High Estimatea,c | Low Estimatea,c | High Estimatea,c | |
| Information-only calls | 1,569,814 | 3,564,621 | 2,943,400 | 7,129,241 |
| Symptomatic calls | 1,460,473 | 3,316,339 | 2,738,387 | 6,632,677 |
| Subtotals: Calls requiring response from information specialist or healthcare professionald | 3,030,287 | 6,880,959 | 5,681,788 | 13,761,918 |
| Calls ended after recorded message or ended prematurely | 874,722 | 1,986,256 | 1,640,104 | 3,972,513 |
| Totals all calls at peak | 3,905,009 | 8,867,215 | 7,321,892 | 17,734,431 |
Using a seed starting of 10 cases, duration of pandemic lasts up to 32 weeks for a 30% attack rate (Appendix 2). Estimates based on US population size of approximately 323 million (Table 1).
1968-like pandemic = severity level 3; 1957-like pandemic = severity level 4 (Table 1).
Low and high estimates for call-to-hospitalization ratio model derived from lower and upper estimates of hospitalization rates, which depend on influenza severity rate, or pandemic type (Table 1).
Subtotals represent those calls to a national nurse triage line for caller seeking either additional information regarding pandemic influenza or those with symptoms seeking advice regarding treatment. Such calls require assistance and response from an information specialist or healthcare professional.