Figure 1:

Output of our method for the increase of the mean summer (June-August) and winter (December-February) temperatures. Shown are heat maps of the estimate of the difference. The uncertainty in the excursion set estimate ${\widehat{A}}_c$ (purple boundary) for c = 2^◦C is captured by the CoPE sets ${\widehat{A}}_c^{+}$ (red boundary) and ${\widehat{A}}_c^{-}$ (green boundary). The threshold was obtained according to Theorem 1 to guarantee inclusion ${\widehat{A}}_c^{+}\subset A_c\subset {\widehat{A}}_c^{-}$ with confidence 1−α = 0.9. The horizontal and vertical axes are indexed in degrees longitude and latitude, respectively.