Table 2.
Posterior means, standard deviations and 95% credible intervals for indirect effects (logit link) of protein (N) and carotenoid (C) supplementation to hihi nestlings on their subsequent annual survival owing to changes in boldness. (Here, the CJS model described above (table 1) was simplified by removing insignificant factors (b.sex.phi, b.clutch.phi, b.acc.phi.juv, b.acc.phi.ad, b.act.phi.juv and b.act.phi.ad) and integrated with an additional logit-linear model estimating the effects of nestling nutritional supplementation on the probability of the bird being scored as bold. The parameter ‘b.feed.bold’ is included to distinguish birds used as controls in the feeding experiment (i.e. given sugar water without carotenoids or protein) from those that had not been treated at all (but which received sugar water from their parents). The indirect effects shown in the lower part of the table are derived from the main effects shown in the upper part. LCL, lower credible limit; UCL, upper credible limit.)
| parameter | meaning | mean | s.d. | LCL | UCL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| a.phi | survival intercept (logit of annual adult survival probability) | −0.002 | 0.547 | −1.055 | 1.097 |
| b.age.phi | effect of age (juvenile) on survival probability | −1.035 | 0.910 | −2.813 | 0.728 |
| b.bold.phi.juv | effect of boldness on juvenile survival probability | 3.728 | 4.251 | 0.243 | 16.820 |
| b.bold.phi.ad | effect of boldness on adult survival probability | 0.373 | 0.653 | −0.916 | 1.668 |
| a.bold | boldness intercept (logit of probability of bird being bold) | −0.215 | 0.512 | −1.236 | 0.782 |
| b.feed.bold | effect of nestling feeding on probability of boldness | 0.782 | 0.663 | −0.508 | 2.090 |
| b.C.bold | effect of C supplementation on probability of boldness | 0.929 | 0.551 | −0.121 | 2.056 |
| b.N.bold | effect of N supplementation on probability of boldness | −0.071 | 0.530 | −1.107 | 0.971 |
| b.C.phi.juv | indirect effect of C supplementation on juvenile survival probability | 0.688 | 3.843 | −5.244 | 11.290 |
| b.C.phi.ad | indirect effect of C supplementation on adult survival probability | 0.065 | 0.487 | −1.018 | 1.293 |
| b.N.phi.juv | indirect effect of N supplementation on juvenile survival probability | −0.040 | 4.145 | −9.945 | 9.723 |
| b.N.ad | indirect effect of N supplementation on adult survival probability | −0.003 | 0.520 | −1.224 | 1.212 |