Figure 1.

Host phylogenetic distance from humans predicts zoonotic risk. Partial effect plots from our selected GAMs show the relative effect of host phylogenetic distance from humans on (a) human CFR (virulence); and (b) capacity for human-to-human transmission (human transmissibility). Data points represent partial residuals, and shaded regions represent 95% confidence intervals around the mean partial effects. Full model descriptions are provided in the electronic supplementary material, Data and Results, table S5a,b.