Figure 2.

Spillover type modulates host predictors of zoonotic risk. Partial effect plots from our selected GAMs show how primary (orange) versus secondary (blue) spillover changes the relative effect of host phylogenetic distance from humans on (a,b) human CFR (virulence); and (c,d) the capacity for human-to-human transmission (human transmissibility). Data points represent partial residuals, and shaded regions represent 95% confidence intervals by standard error around mean partial effects. Full model descriptions are provided in the electronic supplementary material, Data and Results, table S5c,d.