Table 1.

Characteristics of prediction models when outcome and corresponding performance measure (C-statistic) were reported for stroke

Study	Location	Outcome	No of Predictors	Age	Gender	Events (n)/total participants (n)	Duration of follow-up	Modelling method	Calibration	Discrimination (with CI)	External Validation
Yang et al 38	Hong Kong, China	Stroke (stroke or deaths from stroke), haemorrhagic stroke and ischaemic stroke	4 (age, A1C, spot urine ACR and history of CHD)	Median age 57 years	Both male and female	372/7209	Median follow-up 5.37 years	Cox proportional hazard model	The Life Table Method. Adequate calibration, value NR.	Adjusted: AUROC=0.776 (considering follow-up time and censoring); unadjusted AUROC=0.749 (0.716 to 0.782)	No
Kothari et al 21	UK	Stroke (defined as a neurological deficit with symptoms or signs lasting 1 month or more)	7 (duration of diabetes, age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio and presence of atrial fibrillation)	25 to 65 years	Both male and female	188/4549	Median follow-up 10.5 years	Maximum likelihood estimation using the Newton-Raphson method	NR	NR	Yes
Wells et al 47	USA	CHD, heart failure, stroke, mortality	29 (different variables for different models)	18 years of age or older	Both male and female	Stroke: 1088/26 140	Median follow-up 501 days (Stroke model)	Competing risks regression model	Calibration plot (predicted risk against actual risk): less-well calibration (stroke and mortality)	C-statistic=0.6881 (stroke)	No
Stevens et al. UKPDS 6624	UK	MI case fatality and stroke case fatality	5 (sex, HbA1c, SBP, previous stroke, white cell count for Stroke model)	Between 25 and 65 years	Both male and female	Stroke: 234/5102	Median follow-up of 7 years	Stepwise selection algorithm	HL test: p=0.248 (Stroke model)	NR	No
Tanaka et alJJ Risk Engine48	Japan	CHD, stroke, non-cardiovascular mortality, overt nephropathy and progression of retinopathy	11 (sex, age, HbA1c, years after diagnosis, BMI, non-HDL cholesterol, ACR, atrial fibrillation, current smoker and leisure-time physical activity)	40–84 years	Both male and female	Stroke: 89/1748	Median follow-up of 7.2 years	Cox regression model	HL test: p=0.12 (Stroke model)	C-statistic=0.636 (0.564 to 0. 708) (Stroke model)	No
Palmer et al (IRS)23	Scotland	Fatal or non-fatal stroke	5 genotypes (IL-6 GG/GC, MCP- 1 GG, ICAM-1 EE, sel·E RR and MMP-3 5A5A)	Mean age 64.5±11.7 years	Both male and female	108/2182	Mean follow-up of 6.2±1.1 years	Cox regression model	NR	NR	No
Kiadaliri et al 22	Sweden	First and second events of: AMI, heart failure, non-acute ischaemic heart disease and stroke	12 (age, TC/HDL, diabetes duration, HbAIc, BMI, SBP and diastolic BP, history of events before diagnosis, LDL cholesterol, albuminuria, smoking status, BMI and gender)	Male : mean age, 55.36±9.28 years; Female: mean age, 57.15±9.55 years	Both male and female	993/21 775 (first stroke); 314/21 775 (second stroke)	82 232 person-years for first stroke and 4127 person-years for second stroke	Weibull proportional hazard model	HL χ2 statistic: 11.22 (p=0.19) (first stroke); 8.09 (p=0.43) (second stroke)	C-statistic=0.80 (0.78 to 0.82) (first stroke); C-statistic=0.74 (0.71 to 0.77) (second stroke)	No
Li et al 49	Taiwan	Ischaemic stroke	14 (age, gender, smoking habit, duration of type 2 diabetes, blood pressure, HbA1c level, total cholesterol to HDL ratio, creatinine, fasting plasma glucose variation, arterial embolism and thrombosis, diabetes retinopathy, hypoglycaemia, antidiabetes medication use and cardiovascular medication)	30–84 years	Both male and female	2091 (derivation set), 1076 (validation set)/18 750 (derivation set), 9374 (validation set)	Mean follow-up of 8 years	Cox proportional hazard regression model	NR	AUROC=0.72 (3 years); AUROC=0.71 (5 years); AUROC=0.68 (8 years)	No
Basu et al RECODe36	USA and Canada	Microvascular: nephropathy, retinopathy, neuropathy; Cardiovascular: composite of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (first fatal or non-fatal MI or stroke), fatal or non-fatal MI, fatal or non-fatal stroke, congestive heart failure, or death from any cardiovascular cause	14 (Age, sex, ethnicity, smoking, SBP, history of CVD, blood pressure-lowering drugs use, statin use, anticoagulants use, HbA1c, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, serum creatinine, urine ACR)	40–79 years	Both male and female	197 (stroke)/9635	Median follow-up of 4.7 years	Cox proportional hazard models	Calibration slope=1.16, χ2=7.4, p value=0.38 (internal validation); calibration slope=0.99, χ2=8.2, p value=0.22 (external validation)	C-statistic for stroke=0.70 (0.66 to 0.74) (internal validation); C-statistic for stroke=0.67 (0.63 to 0.71) (external validation)	Yes

ACR, albumin-to-creatinine ratio; AMI, acute myocardial infarction; AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; BMI, body mass index; BP, blood pressure; CHD, coronary heart disease; CVD, cardiovascular disease; HDL, high-density lipoprotein; HL, Hosmer-Lemeshow; HbA1C, haemoglobin A1C; IRS, inflammatory risk score; JJ, The JDCS/J-EDIT; LDL, low-density lipoprotein; MI, myocardial infarction; NR, not reported; RECODe, Risk Equations for Complications of Type 2 Diabetes; SBP, systolic blood pressure; TC, total cholesterol; UKPDS, United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study.