Appendix 1—figure 8. Future trends in measles elimination under different assumptions on the generation time.

(a) Mean effective reproduction number over time, as estimated by the model under the ‘current’ vaccination program and under different coverage scenarios for the ‘parental vaccination’ program when assuming a generation time lasting 10 days on average. Shaded areas represent 95% CI associated with model estimates. The red line represents the measles elimination threshold; elimination is achieved when the effective reproductive number is smaller than 1. (b) Probability associated with the different times of measles elimination, as obtained from 1000 model realizations under the ‘current’ vaccination program and under different coverage scenarios for the ‘parental vaccination’ when assuming a generation time lasting 10 days on average. (c) As (a) but when assuming a generation time lasting 18 days on average. (d) As (b) but when assuming a generation time lasting 18 days on average.