Figure 4. Progress towards measles elimination.

(A) Mean effective reproduction number over time, as estimated by the model under the ‘current’ vaccination program and under different coverage scenarios for the ‘parental vaccination’ program. Shaded areas represent the 95% CI associated with model estimates. The red line represents the measles elimination threshold; elimination is achieved when the effective reproductive number is smaller than 1. (B) Probability associated with different time at measles elimination, as obtained by 1000 model realizations under the ‘current’ vaccination program and under different coverage scenarios for the ‘parental vaccination’ program.