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. 2019 Sep 3;9:12332. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-48625-z

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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UVI calculated from World Avoided and World Expected simulations for the period 1960 to 2100 for high (a,d), mid (b,e), and low (c,f) latitudes. The shaded area shows the seasonal range of predictions calculated from the NIWA-UKCA World Avoided simulation. The upper envelope of the shaded range refers to peak values predicted for the summer and the lower envelope to minimum values predicted for winter. The red and blue lines indicate the 5-year running means for the NIWA-UKCA and GEOS-CCM World Avoided model simulations, respectively. The green line is the 5-year running mean of the NIWA-UKCA World Expected simulation, which assumes full compliance with the Montreal Protocol.