Table 1.
Clinical Parameters for Assessing Cost-effectiveness of Sorafenib Versus BSC.
| Parameter | Base value | 95% confidence linterval |
Distribution | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower value | Upper value | ||||
| Utilities | |||||
| PFS utility | 0.76 | 0.67 | 0.85 | Beta | 31 |
| PD utility | 0.68 | 0.60 | 0.76 | Beta | 31 |
| Transition probabilities | |||||
| Sorafenib | |||||
| PFS to PD | 0.179 | 0.158 | 0.199 | Beta | 15 [Author estimation from Cheng et al.] |
| PD to Deathdeath | 0.375 | 0.333 | 0.417 | Beta | 15 [Author estimation from Cheng et al.] |
| BSC | |||||
| PFS to PD | 0.357 | 0.317 | 0.398 | Beta | 15 [Author estimation from Cheng et al.] |
| PD to Deathdeath | 0.412 | 0.262 | 0.328 | Beta | 15 [Author estimation from Cheng et al.] |
| All-cause mortality | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.004 | Beta | 32, 34 |
| Average length of stay (days) | |||||
| General ward | 8.14 | 12 | |||
| ICU | 13 | 24 | |||
| Discount rate (%) | 3.0 | 13 | |||
| Adverse effect requiring management in Sorafenib sorafenib (%) | |||||
| Hand foot syndrome | 10.7 | 15 | |||
| Diarrhoea | 6.0 | 15 | |||
| Fatigue | 3.4 | 15 | |||
| Hyper tension | 2.0 | 15 | |||
| Rash | 0.7 | 15 | |||
| Nausea | 0.7 | 15 | |||
| Pain | 68.0 | 20 | |||
| Management of complications | 47.7 | 15 | |||
| General ward | 70.0 | 15 | |||
| ICU | 30.0 | 15 | |||
| Complications requiring management in BSC (%) | |||||
| Pain | 68.0 | 20 | |||
| Nutritional Support | 55.0 | 20 | |||
| Ascites | 51.0 | 20 | |||
| UGIE varices | 70.0 | 20 | |||
| Anorexia | 74.0 | 20 | |||
| Nausea & and Vomitingvomiting | 50.0 | 20 | |||
| Jaundice & and Pruritispruritis | 35.0 | 20 | |||
| Management of complications | 45.3 | 15 | |||
| General ward | 70.0 | 15 | |||
| ICU | 30.0 | 15 | |||
| Treatment discontinuation in Sorafenib sorafenib (%) | 19.5 | 15 | |||
| Dose reduction in Sorafenib sorafenib (%) | 30.9 | 15 | |||
| Average Sorafenib sorafenib daily dose (mg) | 568 | 15 | |||
| Survival rates | |||||
| Sorafenib MOS (months) | 6.5 | 15 | |||
| Sorafenib MTTP (months) | 2.8 | 15 | |||
| BSC MOS (months) | 4.2 | 15 | |||
| BSC MTTP (months) | 1.4 | 15 | |||
PFS: progression free state, PD: progressive disease, ICU: intensive care unit, BSC: best supporting care, MOS: median overall survival, MTTP: median Time to progression, UGIE: upper gastrointestinal endoscopy.