Figure 1.

Schematic of the model dynamics in three stages: Science, Evolution and Grant-Seeking. In the Science stage (1), a hypothesis is either true (solid lines) or false (dashed lines). When investigated, the results are either positive or negative (results congruent with the true epistemic state of the hypothesis are indicated by blue, results incongruent are indicated by red). Results are then communicated with a probability influenced by the publication rate of negative results (p) and the efficacy of peer review (r). In the Evolution stage (2), labs vary by their methodological rigour (indicated by arbitrary colour) and publication history (indicated by size). At each time step, one of the older labs ‘dies,’ and is replaced by a new lab that inherits its methods from among the most productive extant labs. In the Grant-Seeking stage (3), a subset of labs apply for funding, which is awarded to the lab that best meets the criterion used by the funding agency.