Figure 3.

Probability of elimination of onchocerciasis if the Ov16 antibody prevalence is over or under the threshold. The panels represent 4 examples out of 750 scenarios of precontrol CMFL and history of mass drug administration (same selection as in Figure 2). See Figure 1 for a description of how the curves were created. The overall probability of elimination (before Ov16 antibody testing) is represented by the horizontal dotted line in each panel. Here, Ov16 positivity is assumed to be lifelong, but patterns are qualitatively similar when based on the assumption of instant seroreversion. See Web Figure 2 for a complete overview of all 750 scenarios and age groups considered, as well as both assumptions about Ov16 seroreversion. A) Precontrol CMFL of 10 microfilariae (mf) per skin snip and 8 rounds of MDA at 60% coverage. B) Same scenario as in A, but with 10 instead of 8 MDA rounds. C) Precontrol CMFL of 55 mf per skin snip and 13 rounds of MDA at 80% coverage. D) Same scenario as in C, but with 15 instead of 13 MDA rounds.