Table 2.

Simulation-Based Threshold Values for Ov16 Antibodies in Children Aged 5–14 Years That Are Consistent With High Probability of Elimination

Precontrol CMFLa (mf/ss)	Threshold for Ov16 Antibody Prevalence Targetb
	≥90% Probability of Elimination	≥95% Probability of Elimination	≥99% Probability of Elimination
5	24.5–42.9	19.8–37.3	13.9–28.8
10	18.2–35.3	13.5–29.8	7.8–20.5
30	10.6–24.2	7.6–19.1	2.3–12.6
55	9.5–20.0	6.3–15.3	2.6–9.1
80	8.1–17.8	5.3–13.6	1.9–7.5

Abbreviations: CMFL, community microfilarial load; mf, microfilaria(e); ss, skin snip.

^a CMFL is the geometric mean skin microfilarial density in adults of age 20 years or older.

^b Threshold values are provided for target probability of elimination (positive predictive value) of 90%, 95%, or 99%. These thresholds were determined for settings where the a priori probability of elimination (before Ov16 testing) is at least 80%. The left value of each reported range is based on the assumption of instant seroreversion; the right value is based on the assumption of no seroreversion (i.e., lifelong seropositivity when it occurs). Threshold values are further based on the assumption that we know the exact serostatus of each individual. In Web Appendix 2 we explain how the reader can interpret our results accounting for misclassification of serostatus.