Table 3. Annual progression and regression probabilities used in the model.

Annual input required	Spontaneous progression /regression probability	Reference
Progression from well to hrHPV (incidence of HPV)	41.6%	5
% of hrHPV that is HPV16/18	32.9%	5
Progression from hrHPV (12 types) to CIN1	5.8%	27
Progression from hrHPV (12 types) to CIN2	0.1%	28
Progression from hrHPV (12 types) to CIN3	0.1%	28
Progression from hrHPV (16/18) to CIN1	5.8%	28
Progression from hrHPV (16/18) to CIN2	0.6%	28
Progression from hrHPV (16/18) to CIN3	1.5%	28
Progression from hrHPV (14 types) to CIN1	5.8%	28
Progression from hrHPV (14 types) to CIN2	0.2%	28
Progression from hrHPV (14 types) to CIN3	0.9%	28
Progression from CIN1 to CIN2	9.2%	27
Progression from CIN1 to CIN3	5.1%	29
Progression from CIN1 to ICC	0.3%	Weighted average of 30 & 31
Progression from CIN2 to CIN3	5.0%	32
Progression from CIN2 to ICC	4.4%	27
Progression from CIN3 to ICC	4.4%	27
ICC to death	14.5%	27
Regression–ANNUAL
Regression of hrHPV (16/18) /NORMAL smear to well	41.0%	33
Regression of hrHPV (16/18) / ASCUS/LSIL smear to well	41.0%	Assumed = normal smear
Regression of hrHPV (12 pooled)/NORMAL smear to well	50.0%	33
Regression of hrHPV (12 pooled)/ ASCUS/LSIL smear to well	50.0%	Assumed = normal smear
Regression of hrHPV (14 pooled)/NORMAL smear to well	44.0%	33
Regression of hrHPV (14 pooled)/ ASCUS/LSIL smear to well	44.0%	Assumed = normal smear
Regression for CIN1 to hrHPV (14 pooled)	10.0%	34
Regression for CIN1 to well	5.8%	29
Regression for CIN2 to well	12.5%	32
Regression for CIN2 to CIN1	17.3%	35
Regression for CIN3 to CIN1	17.3%	Assumed = CIN2 to CIN1
Regression for CIN3 to well	22.7%	27
% of cervical cancers associated with HPV 16 and/or 18	63.8%	26
CIN2 as a Percentage of CIN2-3	48.1%	36

HPV = human papillomavirus; hrHPV = high risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV); CIN = cervical intraepithelial neoplasia; ICC = invasive cervical cancer; ASCUS = atypical cells of undetermined significance; LSIL = low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion