Skip to main content
. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2019 Sep 12.
Published in final edited form as: Demography. 2017 Dec;54(6):2001–2024. doi: 10.1007/s13524-017-0623-x

Figure 1.

Figure 1

Figure 1

Simulations of spurious mortality crossovers

Panel A Consequences of varying rates of Methuselah error

Note: The reference group is from the SSA Life Tables. The “high mortality” group has a 40% higher mortality than the reference group. We then simulated missing deaths for the high mortality group, with error rates of 0%, 1%, 5%, 10% and 15%.

Panel B Simulation of a black-white mortality crossover with small rates of missing deaths

Note: The gray curve shows the probability of death for non-Hispanic whites, from the 2013 SSA Period Life Tables, and the black curve shows a population with 40% higher mortality. We then simulate missing deaths for the non-Hispanic whites at 1.8% and for blacks at 4.2%.