Table 3.
Comparison of the models’ performance to predict all-cause dementia and Alzheimer dementia in individuals aged 40 to 79 years.
| Performance variable | All-cause dementiaa,b | Alzheimer dementiaa,b | ||||
| HR-Bc | HR-Rd | DL-Re | HR-B | HR-R | DL-R | |
| Discrimination (performance) | 0.84 (0.83-0.85) | 0.87 (0.86-0.88) | 0.90 (0.90-0.90) | 0.87 (0.86-0.88) | 0.90 (0.88-0.91) | 0.91 (0.91-0.91) |
| Sensitivity (%) | 80.41 (79.35-81.46) | 80.17 (79.11-81.23) | 83.50 (82.52-84.49) | 82.90 (81.43-84.38) | 80.54 (78.99-82.09) | 87.62 (86.32-88.91) |
| Specificity (%) | 73.23 (72.94-73.52) | 77.88 (77.61-78.15) | 79.88 (79.61-80.14) | 75.86 (75.58-76.13) | 81.25 (80.99-81.5) | 78.66 (78.40-78.93) |
| Accuracy (%) | 73.64 (73.36-73.92) | 78.01 (77.75-78.27) | 80.08 (79.83-80.33) | 76.04 (75.77-76.32) | 81.23 (80.98-81.48) | 78.91 (78.64-79.17) |
| Positive predictive value (%) | 15.33 (14.91-15.75) | 17.93 (17.45-18.41) | 20.01 (19.49-20.53) | 8.67 (8.32-9.03) | 10.62 (10.18-11.06) | 10.20 (9.79-10.60) |
| Negative predictive value (%) | 98.41 (98.32-98.51) | 98.49 (98.40-98.58) | 98.77 (98.69-98.85) | 99.38 (99.32-99.44) | 99.34 (99.28-99.40) | 99.57 (99.52-99.61) |
aValues in parentheses indicate 95% CIs.
bDiscrimination performance of the HR-B model and the HR-R model is based on C-statistics and that of the DL-R model is based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
cHR-B: hazard regression model with baseline data.
dHR-R: hazard regression model with repeated measurements.
eDL-R: deep learning model with repeated measurements.