Table 3.
Thermal optima and limits vary substantially across previous mechanistic models of vector‐borne disease transmission
| System | Topt | T min | T max | Study |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falciparum malaria (Anopheles spp.) | 25 | 16 | 34 | Mordecai et al. (2013) |
| Falciparum malaria (Anopheles spp.) | 31 | 18 | 38 | Martens et al. (1997) |
| Falciparum malaria (Anopheles gambiae) | 30 | 18 | 40 | Craig et al. (1999) |
| Falciparum malaria (Anopheles spp.) | 32–33 | 20 | 39 | Parham & Michael (2010) |
| Falciparum malaria (Anopheles stephensi) | 29 | 12 | 38 | Shapiro et al. (2017) |
| DENV, CHIKV, ZIKV (Ae. aegypti) | 29 | 18 | 35 | Mordecai et al. (2017) |
| DENV, CHIKV, ZIKV (Ae. albopictus) | 26 | 16 | 32 | Mordecai et al. (2017) |
| CHIKV (Ae. aegypti) | 30 | – | – | Johansson et al. (2014) |
| DENV (Ae. aegypti) | 29 | 12 | 32 | Liu‐Helmersson et al. (2014) |
| DENV (Ae. aegypti) | 35 | 21 | 36 | Morin et al. (2015) |
| DENV (Ae. aegypti) | 29 | 13 | 33 | Wesolowski et al. (2015) |
| ZIKV (Ae. aegypti) | 36 | – | – | Caminade et al. (2017) |
| ZIKV (Ae. albopictus) | 29 | – | – | Caminade et al. (2017) |
| DENV (Ae. aegypti) | 33 | – | – | Siraj et al. (2017) |
| ZIKV (Ae. aegypti) | 29 | 23 | 35 | Tesla et al. (2018) |
| WNV (Cx. pipiens) | 25 | 17 | 35 | Shocket et al., (2019) |
| WNV (Cx. tarsalis) | 24 | 12 | 32 | Shocket et al., (2019) |
| WNV (Cx. quinquefasciatus) | 25 | 19 | 32 | Shocket et al. (2019) |
| WNV (Aedes and Culex spp) | 35 | 18 | * | Kushmaro et al. (2015) |
| WNV (Cx. tarsalis, Cx. pipiens, Cx. quinquefasciatus) | 24‐25 | 15‐17 | – | Paull et al. (2017) |
| WNV (Cx. pipiens, biotypes pipiens, molestus, hybrid) | 28 | 18 | * | Vogels et al. (2017) |
For each vector‐borne disease and study, estimated thermal optima (Topt) and lower and upper thermal limits (T min and T max, respectively) in degrees Celsius were taken from the original papers or by plotting the models. Models include R0, vectorial capacity, and other related measures of transmission. Dashes (‐) indicate that thermal limits were not reported. Asterisks (*) indicate that models were not unimodal. Models presented in this paper (Table 2) are shown in bold for comparison. The parasite abbreviations are as follows: dengue virus (DENV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV), Zika virus (ZIKV), and West Nile virus (WNV). Note: Johnson et al. (2015) used Bayesian inference refit the models for falciparum malaria in Anopheles spp. from the original formulation in Mordecai et al. (2013) and reported similar Topt, T min and T max estimates of approximately 25, 19, and 33 degrees Celsius, respectively, depending on the choice of priors.