Table 1.
Number of people living with HIV by decade, region, age and sex, 2010–2050, UNAIDS 2018 estimates.
| Region | 2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
2040 |
2050 |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate | % of adults aged 15–49 | Estimate | % of adults aged 15–49 | % Change since 2010 | Estimate | % of adults aged 15–49 | % Change since 2010 | Estimate | % of adults aged 15–49 | % Change since 2010 | Estimate | % of adults aged 15–49 | % Change since 2010 | |
| Eastern and Southern Africa | ||||||||||||||
| Adults aged 15–49 | 14,476,000 | 15,841,000 | 9.4 | 12,284,000 | −15.1 | 8,027,000 | −44.6 | 5,218,000 | −64.0 | |||||
| Adults aged 15–24 | 2,157,000 | 14.9 | 1,982,000 | 12.5 | −8.1 | 1,459,000 | 11.9 | −32.4 | 885,000 | 11.0 | −59.0 | 548,000 | 10.5 | −74.6 |
| Girls and women aged 15–24 | 1,483,000 | 10.2 | 1,290,000 | 8.1 | −13.0 | 913,000 | 7.4 | −38.4 | 548,000 | 6.8 | −63.0 | 336,000 | 6.4 | −77.4 |
| Boys and men aged 15–24 | 675,000 | 4.7 | 692,000 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 546,000 | 4.4 | −19.0 | 337,000 | 4.2 | −50.0 | 212,000 | 4.1 | −68.5 |
| East Asia and the Pacific | ||||||||||||||
| Adults aged 15–49 | 2,129,000 | 2,099,000 | −1.4 | 1,693,000 | −20.5 | 1,279,000 | −40.0 | 1,062,000 | −50.1 | |||||
| Adults aged 15–24 | 300,000 | 14.1 | 205,000 | 9.8 | −31.7 | 167,000 | 9.9 | −44.3 | 135,000 | 10.5 | −55.1 | 110,000 | 10.3 | −63.4 |
| Girls and women aged 15–24 | 123,000 | 5.8 | 76,000 | 3.6 | −38.7 | 57,000 | 3.4 | −54.0 | 44,000 | 3.5 | −64.1 | 34,000 | 3.2 | −72.3 |
| Boys and men aged 15–24 | 177,000 | 8.3 | 129,000 | 6.2 | −26.8 | 110,000 | 6.5 | −37.6 | 91,000 | 7.1 | −48.8 | 76,000 | 7.1 | −57.3 |
| Eastern Europe and Central Asia | ||||||||||||||
| Adults aged 15–49 | 680,000 | 1,158,000 | 70.3 | 1,263,000 | 85.8 | 1,178,000 | 73.3 | 1,171,000 | 72.3 | |||||
| Adults aged 15–24 | 69,000 | 10.1 | 68,000 | 5.9 | −1.5 | 88,000 | 7.0 | 27.5 | 92,000 | 7.8 | 33.2 | 72,000 | 6.1 | 4.2 |
| Girls and women aged 15–24 | 33,000 | 4.8 | 34,000 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 44,000 | 3.5 | 34.9 | 45,000 | 3.8 | 35.9 | 35,000 | 3.0 | 7.4 |
| Boys and men aged 15–24 | 36,000 | 5.3 | 34,000 | 3.0 | −5.2 | 44,000 | 3.5 | 20.7 | 47,000 | 4.0 | 30.7 | 37,000 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| Latin America and the Caribbean | ||||||||||||||
| Adults aged 15–49 | 1,386,000 | 1,662,000 | 20.0 | 1,633,000 | 17.8 | 1,386,000 | 0.1 | 1,168,000 | −15.7 | |||||
| Adults aged 15–24 | 224,000 | 16.2 | 214,000 | 12.9 | −4.5 | 187,000 | 11.4 | −16.8 | 167,000 | 12.1 | −25.4 | 142,000 | 12.2 | −36.6 |
| Girls and women aged 15–24 | 92,000 | 6.7 | 86,000 | 5.2 | −6.6 | 76,000 | 4.7 | −17.3 | 69,000 | 5.0 | −25.6 | 58,000 | 5.0 | −36.8 |
| Boys and men aged 15–24 | 132,000 | 9.5 | 128,000 | 7.7 | −3.0 | 110,000 | 6.8 | −16.4 | 99,000 | 7.1 | −25.3 | 84,000 | 7.2 | −36.5 |
| Middle East and North Africa | ||||||||||||||
| Adults aged 15–49 | 119,000 | 150,000 | 26.3 | 156,000 | 31.1 | 145,000 | 21.5 | 141,000 | 18.8 | |||||
| Adults aged 15–24 | 16,000 | 13.7 | 14,000 | 9.1 | −16.3 | 16,000 | 10.1 | −4.0 | 16,000 | 11.0 | −2.4 | 14,000 | 10.1 | −13.1 |
| Girls and women aged 15–24 | 7,000 | 5.6 | 6,000 | 4.1 | −6.0 | 7,000 | 4.7 | 11.1 | 7,000 | 5.1 | 12.5 | 7,000 | 4.7 | 1.6 |
| Boys and men aged 15–24 | 10,000 | 8.2 | 7,000 | 5.0 | −23.3 | 8,000 | 5.4 | −14.2 | 9,000 | 5.9 | −12.5 | 8,000 | 5.3 | −23.0 |
| North America | ||||||||||||||
| Adults aged 15–49 | 567,000 | 628,000 | 10.9 | 624,000 | 10.2 | 529,000 | −6.7 | 432,000 | −23.7 | |||||
| Adults aged 15–24 | 74,000 | 13.0 | 58,000 | 9.2 | −21.4 | 48,000 | 7.7 | −34.4 | 40,000 | 7.6 | −45.3 | 33,000 | 7.7 | −55.0 |
| Girls and women aged 15–24 | 20,000 | 3.6 | 16,000 | 2.6 | −19.7 | 14,000 | 2.2 | −32.1 | 12,000 | 2.2 | −43.5 | 10,000 | 2.2 | −53.4 |
| Boys and men aged 15–24 | 53,000 | 9.4 | 42,000 | 6.6 | −22.1 | 35,000 | 5.5 | −35.2 | 29,000 | 5.4 | −46.0 | 24,000 | 5.5 | −55.5 |
| South Asia | ||||||||||||||
| Adults aged 15–49 | 2,282,000 | 2,307,000 | 1.1 | 1,795,000 | −21.3 | 1,363,000 | −40.3 | 1,013,000 | −55.6 | |||||
| Adults aged 15–24 | 260,000 | 11.4 | 231,000 | 10.0 | −11.0 | 161,000 | 9.0 | −38.0 | 103,000 | 7.6 | −60.2 | 71,000 | 7.0 | −72.8 |
| Girls and women aged 15–24 | 121,000 | 5.3 | 108,000 | 4.7 | −10.8 | 76,000 | 4.2 | −37.6 | 48,000 | 3.6 | −60.0 | 33,000 | 3.3 | −72.6 |
| Boys and men aged 15–24 | 139,000 | 6.1 | 123,000 | 5.3 | −11.2 | 86,000 | 4.8 | −38.4 | 55,000 | 4.0 | −60.5 | 38,000 | 3.7 | −73.0 |
| West and Central Africa | ||||||||||||||
| Adults aged 15–49 | 4,485,000 | 4,480,000 | −0.1 | 4,389,000 | −2.1 | 4,229,000 | −5.7 | 4,094,000 | −8.7 | |||||
| Adults aged 15–24 | 787,000 | 17.6 | 788,000 | 17.6 | 0.1 | 733,000 | 16.7 | −6.9 | 620,000 | 14.7 | −21.3 | 529,000 | 12.9 | −32.9 |
| Girls and women aged 15–24 | 488,000 | 10.9 | 474,000 | 10.6 | −2.9 | 443,000 | 10.1 | −9.2 | 375,000 | 8.9 | −23.2 | 323,000 | 7.9 | −33.9 |
| Boys and men aged 15–24 | 299,000 | 6.7 | 314,000 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 290,000 | 6.6 | −3.0 | 245,000 | 5.8 | −18.1 | 206,000 | 5.0 | −31.1 |
| Western Europe | ||||||||||||||
| Adults aged 15–49 | 313,000 | 311,000 | −0.8 | 293,000 | −6.6 | 268,000 | −14.4 | 255,000 | −18.6 | |||||
| Adults aged 15–24 | 37,000 | 11.7 | 31,000 | 10.1 | −14.2 | 30,000 | 10.3 | −17.3 | 28,000 | 10.4 | −23.3 | 27,000 | 10.5 | −26.7 |
| Girls and women aged 15–24 | 13,000 | 4.3 | 11,000 | 3.7 | −14.8 | 11,000 | 3.8 | −17.6 | 10,000 | 3.8 | −23.9 | 10,000 | 3.8 | −26.9 |
| Boys and men aged 15–24 | 23,000 | 7.4 | 20,000 | 6.4 | −13.9 | 19,000 | 6.6 | −17.2 | 18,000 | 6.7 | −22.9 | 17,000 | 6.7 | −26.5 |
| Global | ||||||||||||||
| Adults aged 15–49 | 26,437,000 | 28,635,000 | 8.3 | 24,130,000 | −8.7 | 18,404,000 | −30.4 | 14,555,000 | −44.9 | |||||
| Adults aged 15–24 | 3,925,000 | 14.8 | 3,592,000 | 12.5 | −8.5 | 2,890,000 | 12.0 | −26.4 | 2,087,000 | 11.3 | −46.8 | 1,545,000 | 10.6 | −60.6 |
| Girls and women aged 15–24 | 2,381,000 | 9.0 | 2,102,000 | 7.3 | −11.7 | 1,641,000 | 6.8 | −31.1 | 1,158,000 | 6.3 | −51.4 | 845,000 | 5.8 | −64.5 |
| Boys and men aged 15–24 | 1,544,000 | 5.8 | 1,491,000 | 5.2 | −3.5 | 1,249,000 | 5.2 | −19.1 | 929,000 | 5.0 | −39.8 | 700,000 | 4.8 | −54.6 |