Table 2.

Number of new HIV infections by decade, region, age and sex, 2010–2050, UNAIDS 2018 estimates.

Region	2010		2020			2030			2040			2050
	Estimate	% of adults aged 15–49	Estimate	% of adults aged 15–49	% Change since 2010	Estimate	% of adults aged 15–49	% Change since 2010	Estimate	% of adults aged 15–49	% Change since 2010	Estimate	% of adults aged 15–49	% Change since 2010
Eastern and Southern Africa
Adults aged 15–49	951,000		612,000		−35.7	400,000		−58.0	264,000		−72.2	181,000		−81.0
Adults aged 15–24	398,000	41.9	247,000	40.4	−37.9	154,000	38.6	−61.2	96,000	36.2	−76.0	62,000	34.5	−84.3
Girls and women aged 15–24	266,000	28.0	166,000	27.2	−37.5	104,000	26.0	−61.0	64,000	24.2	−76.0	41,000	22.6	−84.6
Boys and men aged 15–24	132,000	13.9	81,000	13.2	−38.7	50,000	12.6	−61.8	32,000	12.1	−75.8	22,000	11.9	−83.7
East Asia and the Pacific
Adults aged 15–49	165,000		133,000		−19.4	105,000		−36.1	90,000		−45.3	82,000		−50.4
Adults aged 15–24	64,000	38.5	43,000	32.4	−32.2	32,000	30.6	−49.2	27,000	29.4	−58.3	23,000	27.8	−64.2
Girls and women aged 15–24	25,000	15.2	15,000	11.0	−41.9	10,000	9.5	−60.2	8,000	8.7	−68.7	7,000	8.0	−73.8
Boys and men aged 15–24	38,000	23.3	28,000	21.4	−25.9	22,000	21.1	−42.1	19,000	20.7	−51.5	16,000	19.8	−57.9
Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Adults aged 15–49	97,000		123,000		27.0	118,000		20.9	106,000		9.4	102,000		5.4
Adults aged 15–24	19,000	19.9	17,000	13.6	−12.9	22,000	18.6	13.5	21,000	20.2	11.2	17,000	16.5	−12.2
Girls and women aged 15–24	8,000	8.6	8,000	6.2	−8.3	10,000	8.5	19.5	9,000	8.8	11.2	8,000	7.4	−9.8
Boys and men aged 15–24	11,000	11.2	9,000	7.4	−16.4	12,000	10.1	8.9	12,000	11.4	11.2	9,000	9.2	−14.0
Latin America and the Caribbean
Adults aged 15–49	105,000		104,000		−0.5	97,000		−7.3	88,000		−16.3	78,000		−25.6
Adults aged 15–24	41,000	38.8	38,000	35.9	−7.7	33,000	33.8	−19.0	30,000	33.7	−27.3	26,000	33.1	−36.4
Girls and women aged 15–24	15,000	14.7	14,000	13.6	−7.8	13,000	13.0	−18.3	11,000	13.0	−26.3	10,000	12.8	−35.2
Boys and men aged 15–24	25,000	24.1	23,000	22.3	−7.7	20,000	20.9	−19.5	18,000	20.7	−27.9	16,000	20.3	−37.2
Middle East and North Africa
Adults aged 15–49	12,000		11,000		−3.4	11,000		−8.6	10,000		−15.7	9,000		−20.0
Adults aged 15–24	3,000	29.7	3,000	24.6	−19.9	3,000	29.0	−10.8	3,000	30.3	−13.9	3,000	29.2	−21.4
Girls and women aged 15–24	1,000	11.3	1,000	10.4	−11.3	1,000	12.5	1.3	1,000	13.1	−2.1	1,000	12.9	−8.7
Boys and men aged 15–24	2,000	18.4	2,000	14.2	−25.1	2,000	16.4	−18.2	2,000	17.1	−21.2	1,000	16.2	−29.2
North America
Adults aged 15–49	43,000		34,000		−21.3	28,000		−34.4	23,000		−46.0	19,000		−55.5
Adults aged 15–24	14,000	33.0	11,000	31.3	−25.3	9,000	31.4	−37.6	7,000	31.9	−47.8	6,000	31.7	−57.3
Girls and women aged 15–24	4,000	8.5	3,000	8.3	−23.6	2,000	8.3	−35.8	2,000	8.5	−46.3	2,000	8.5	−55.9
Boys and men aged 15–24	11,000	24.5	8,000	23.0	−25.9	7,000	23.0	−38.2	5,000	23.5	−48.3	4,000	23.3	−57.7
South Asia
Adults aged 15–49	111,000		87,000		−21.4	68,000		−38.5	56,000		−49.6	50,000		−55.4
Adults aged 15–24	44,000	39.8	31,000	35.0	−30.8	21,000	31.0	−52.1	15,000	27.3	−65.4	12,000	24.4	−72.6
Girls and women aged 15–24	20,000	17.6	13,000	15.2	−31.7	9,000	13.5	−52.7	7,000	11.8	−66.1	5,000	10.6	−73.2
Boys and men aged 15–24	25,000	22.2	17,000	19.8	−30.1	12,000	17.5	−51.6	9,000	15.5	−64.8	7,000	13.9	−72.2
West and Central Africa
Adults aged 15–49	271,000		249,000		−8.0	233,000		−14.0	218,000		−19.4	210,000		−22.3
Adults aged 15–24	127,000	46.8	115,000	46.3	−9.1	104,000	44.7	−17.9	90,000	41.0	−29.4	82,000	39.1	−35.0
Girls and women aged 15–24	77,000	28.4	69,000	27.9	−9.8	64,000	27.3	−17.5	55,000	25.2	−28.4	51,000	24.2	−33.7
Boys and men aged 15–24	50,000	18.4	46,000	18.4	−8.0	41,000	17.4	−18.5	34,000	15.8	−30.8	31,000	14.9	−37.1
Western Europe
Adults aged 15–49	22,000		20,000		−10.4	18,000		−19.0	17,000		−23.7	16,000		−26.3
Adults aged 15–24	7,000	32.3	6,000	32.7	−9.3	6,000	34.3	−13.9	6,000	34.2	−19.1	6,000	34.3	−21.8
Girls and women aged 15–24	2,000	11.0	2,000	11.1	−9.4	2,000	11.6	−14.4	2,000	11.6	−19.8	2,000	11.6	−22.1
Boys and men aged 15–24	5,000	21.3	4,000	21.6	−9.2	4,000	22.7	−13.7	4,000	22.7	−18.8	4,000	22.6	−21.7
Global
Adults aged 15–49	1,777,000		1,374,000		−22.7	1,078,000		−39.3	872,000		−50.9	748,000		−57.9
Adults aged 15–24	718,000	40.4	510,000	37.1	−28.9	385,000	35.7	−46.4	294,000	33.7	−59.0	237,000	31.7	−67.0
Girls and women aged 15–24	419,000	23.6	292,000	21.2	−30.4	215,000	20.0	−48.7	159,000	18.3	−62.0	126,000	16.9	−69.9
Boys and men aged 15–24	298,000	16.8	218,000	15.9	−26.8	170,000	15.7	−43.1	135,000	15.5	−54.7	111,000	14.8	−62.9