Figure 1. Herpes simplex virus-2 genital shedding episodes are notable for extraordinary heterogeneity in terms of peak viral load and duration.

(A) Individual shedding trajectories from 3 study participants who self-sampled every 6 hours over 60 days. Arrows indicate high (1), medium (2) and low (3) copy episodes. Data is from reference 27. (B & C) Data from 1020 shedding episodes in 531 study participants (figure adapted from references 19 and 21) who performed daily self-sampling of the anogenital region for 30-60 days. Colored bars are actual data and black bars are from optimized simulations of the mathematical model in Figure 5. (B) Frequency histogram of observed episode peak viral load. (C) Frequency histogram of observed episode duration. Interval censoring means that episodes which were not observed completely (i.e. initiated before sampling began or ended after sampling terminated) are excluded. It is notable that the cohort described in B and C is likely overestimating median peak viral load and duration because brief episodes lasting less than 12 hours which compromise ~50% of observed episodes are missed with daily sampling.