Fig. 3.

Model predictions: beliefs and neural responses: considering the psychosis spectrum timeline, one can make specific hypotheses about the parameters that could mark each stage by referring to the equation in Fig. 1 and the functional anatomy of social inference (Figs. 1 and 2) using simulations. a In the early, prodromal stage of increased aberrant salience, we predict an increased representation of sensory precision or ${\widehat{\pi }}_{i-1}^{\left(k\right)}$ during the social learning task. Neurally, this may be expressed as enhanced low-level PEs and thus enhanced connectivity between dopaminergic and sensory to parietal and frontal regions; b In the later stages, when persecutory delusions are present, we predict an enhancement of the belief precision or ${\pi }_i^{\left(k\right)}$ during the social learning task. At the level of the hierarchical Bayesian model, this would be associated with reduced estimated volatility, tonic learning rate, and a more negative prior estimate about the adviser’s fidelity. Neurally, this may be expressed as increased high-level precision and PEs and thus increased connectivity strength from the medial prefrontal regions to cingulate areas