Table 2.
Prevalence by Tobacco Use, Projected by Minnesota SimSmoke Under Multiple Scenarios, 1993‒2040
| Scenario/Use | 1993 % | 2018 Best (Lower, Upper),a % | 2040 Best (Lower, Upper),a % | Relative change 2018,b % | Relative change 2040,b % | Percent of total 2040c |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Males | ||||||
| Counter-factual | ||||||
| Smokers | 25.3 | 21.6 (21.6, 21.6) | 19.1 (19.1, 19.1) | |||
| SLT use | 3.9 | 3.2 (3.2, 3.2) | 2.9 (2.9, 2.9) | |||
| All policies | ||||||
| Smokers | 25.3 | 14.1 (16.6, 11.8) | 10.9 (13.5, 8.6) | −35 (−23, −45) | −43 (−29, −55) | 100 |
| SLT use | 3.9 | 2.5 (2.8, 2.2) | 2.1 (2.4, 1.8) | −23 (−12, −32) | −27 (−15, −38) | 100 |
| Price alone | ||||||
| Smokers | 25.3 | 17.4 (18.4, 16.5) | 14.3 (15.4, 13.3) | −19 (−15, −24) | −25 (−20, −30) | 52 |
| SLT use | 3.9 | 2.8 (2.9, 2.6) | 2.5 (2.6, 2.3) | −14 (−9, −18) | −14 (−10, −19) | 54 |
| Smoke-free air laws alone | ||||||
| Smokers | 25.3 | 20.0 (20.8, 19.2) | 17.5 (18.3, 16.8) | −8 (−4, −11) | −8 (−4, −12) | 17 |
| SLT use | 3.9 | 3.2 (3.2, 3.1) | 2.8 (2.9, 2.8) | −1 (0, −1) | ‒1 (0, −1) | 3 |
| Tobacco control expenditures Alone | ||||||
| Smokers | 25.3 | 21.0 (21.3, 20.7) | 18.5 (18.8, 18.2) | −3 (−1, −4) | −3 (−2, −5) | 6 |
| SLT use | 3.9 | 3.1 (3.2, 3.1) | 2.8 (2.8, 2.8) | −2 (−1, −3) | −2 (−1, −3) | 8 |
| Cessation treatment alone | ||||||
| Smokers | 25.3 | 20.7 (21.1, 20.2) | 18.2 (18.7, 17.8) | −5 (−2, −7) | −5 (−3, −7) | 10 |
| SLT use | 3.9 | 3.1 (3.1, 3.0) | 2.8 (2.8, 2.7) | −3 (‒1, −5) | −3 (−1, −5) | 13 |
| Health warnings aloned | ||||||
| Smokers | 25.3 | 21.6 (21.6, 21.6) | 19.1 (19.1, 19.1) | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ |
| SLT use | 3.9 | 3.2 (3.2, 3.1) | 2.8 (2.9, 2.8) | −1 (0, −1) | −1 (0, −1) | 4 |
| Youth access alone | ||||||
| Smokers | 25.3 | 21.1 (21.4, 20.7) | 17.8 (18.6, 17.0) | −3 (−1, −5) | −7 (−3, −11) | 14 |
| SLT use | 3.9 | 3.1 (3.2, 3.1) | 2.7 (2.8, 2.6) | −2 (−1, −4) | −5 (−2, −9) | 18 |
| Females | ||||||
| Counter-factual | ||||||
| Smokers | 23.5 | 19.5 (19.5, 19.5) | 17.3 (17.3, 17.3) | |||
| SLT use | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | |||
| All policies | ||||||
| Smokers | 23.5 | 12.6 (14.9, 10.5) | 9.7 (12.2, 7.6) | −36 (−23, −46) | −44 (−30, −56) | 100 |
| SLT use | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ |
| Price alone | ||||||
| Smokers | 23.5 | 15.8 (16.7, 15.0) | 13.1 (14.0, 12.2) | −19 (−15, −23) | −24 (−19, −29) | 49 |
| SLT use | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ |
| Smoke-free air laws alone | ||||||
| Smokers | 23.5 | 17.9 (18.7, 17.1) | 15.7 (16.5, 15.0) | −8 (−4, −12) | −9 (−5, −14) | 18 |
| SLT use | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ |
| Tobacco control expenditures alone | ||||||
| Smokers | 23.5 | 18.9 (19.2, 18.6) | 16.7 (17.0, 16.4) | −3 (−2, −5) | −3 (−2, −5) | 7 |
| SLT use | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ |
| Cessation treatment alone | ||||||
| Smokers | 23.5 | 18.5 (19.0, 18.0) | 16.2 (16.8, 15.8) | −5 (−3, −8) | −6 (−3, −9) | 12 |
| SLT use | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ |
| Health warnings alone | ||||||
| Smokers | 23.5 | 19.5 (19.5, 19.5) | 17.3 (17.3, 17.3) | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ |
| SLT use | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ |
| Youth access alone | ||||||
| Smokers | 23.5 | 19.0 (19.3, 18.6) | 16.2 (16.8, 15.4) | −3 (−1, −4) | −7 (−3, −11) | 13 |
| SLT use | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ | ‒ |
a
Estimates are given in terms of the best estimate and the upper and lower bounds based on the policy evaluation literature.
b
Relative changes are estimated for a particular policy or group of policies relative to the Counterfactual, i.e., (Policyp,t-Counterfactualp,t)/Counterfactualp,t for policy p and time period t.
c
Percent of total is measured as the relative change from the policy relative to the summed relative change effects of all policies.
d
Health warnings were changed for smokeless tobacco, but not cigarettes.
SLT, smokeless tobacco.