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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2020 Oct 1.
Published in final edited form as: Math Biosci. 2019 Aug 24;316:108242. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2019.108242

Table 3.

The mean squared error (MSE) between forecast/smoothed and measured glucose. The machine-based methods, almost always selected the parameter set that achieved the MSE minimum, but for some individuals, certain hand-chosen parameters matter.

Rank-ordered parameters per selection method
MSE for MCMC MSE for UKF
parameter P1 P2 P4 P5 P1 P2 P4 P5 method-feature-metric pairs
a1 822 1140 338 296 809 1270 304 356 LASSO(μ), LR(μ), PCA(μ)
Rg 655 1180 475 288 672 1490 470 401 LASSO(σ), LR(σ), ridge(σ), PCA(σ)
tp 807 1020 448 349 788 1050 407 420 by-hand, high-influence
Vp 820 1120 332 320 805 1300 313 362 by-hand, high-influence
E 681 1250 655 500 721 1380 704 724 by-hand, low-influence
α 501 1250 526 346 526 1580 528 394 low-influence
td 530 1080 730 674 NaN 1260 NaN 480 low-influence
Rank-ordered parameter pairs per selection method
(a1, C1) 570 1080 285 276 698 1290 258 330 LASSO(μ), LR(μ), PCA(μ)
(Rg, C3) 593 923 210 297 613 1260 215 385 LASSO(σ), LR(σ), ridge(σ), PCA(σ)
(a1, Rg) 578 1130 292 296 614 1400 269 343 Union of rank 1 over methods
(α, E) 454 1174 518 345 483 1310 535 520 low-influence
(α, td) 432 993 525 347 NaN 1120 NaN NaN low-influence
(E, td) 462 1030 592 487 643 1190 NaN 490 low-influence
Rank-ordered parameter 3-tuple per selection method
(a1, C1, Vp) 569 1060 284 276 663 1310 260 329 LASSO(μ) (1st)
(a1, C1, tp) 518 864 247 275 NaN NaN 234 294 LASSO(μ) (2nd)
(Rg, C3, Um) 590 922 190 294 618 1140 228 391 LASSO(σ), LR(σ), PCA(σ)
(a1, C1, C3) 431 1020 261 274 1330 1110 251 340 LR(μ) PCA(μ)
(C2, E, α) 442 1020 518 346 479 1250 535 515 low-influence
(td, C2, α) 432 894 525 347 NaN 1190 NaN NaN low-influence
(td, E, α) 398 956 479 343 NaN 1120 NaN 520 low-influence
(td, E, C2) 464 941 592 489 630 1190 NaN NaN low-influence
Rank-ordered parameter 4-tuple per selection method
(a1, Rg, C1, C3) 398 864 182 288 649 985 265 324 Union of rank 2 over methods
Full Houlihan for μ and σ
(a1, C1, Vp, tp, Rm, C3) 414 862 217 229 661 NaN 236 291 Lasso(μ)
(Rg, C3, Um, a1, C1, tp, Rm, Vp) 375 863 182 231 632 942 224 289 Lasso(σ)
Method with the lowest MSE
Lasso Lasso Lasso/Union Lasso low-influence Lasso Lasso Lasso