Table 1.
Coefficients (95% CI) for immediate impact of introduction of minimum unit pricing in Scotland on price per gram of alcohol purchased (pence) and on grams of alcohol purchased per adult per household aggregated by week. Robust and sensitivity analyses are detailed in the Methods
| Coefficient for impact of change* | Price per gram of alcohol (pence) | Grams of alcohol purchased per individual per household/week |
|---|---|---|
| Controlled interrupted time series analysis for Scotland, controlling for England (main analysis) | ||
| Durbin Watson statistic | 1.75 (linear regression model) | 1.70 (linear regression model) |
| Level change | 0.64 (0.54 to 0.75) | −9.50 (−13.89 to −5.11) |
| Slope before change | 0.0003 (−0.0001 to 0.001) | −0.026 (−0.045 to −0.008) |
| Slope after change | −0.004 (−0.009 to 0.001) | 0.122 (−0.079 to 0.324) |
| Before-and-after analysis: change after introduction of MUP in Scotland, controlling for changes in England (robust analysis 1) | ||
| Level change | 0.61 (0.51 to 0.70) | −9.71 (−15.86 to −3.56) |
| Uncontrolled interrupted time series analysis for Scotland (robust analysis 2) | ||
| Durbin Watson statistic | 1.57 (linear regression model) | Post-seasonal adjustment: 1.96 (linear regression model) |
| Level change | 0.78 (0.62 to 0.94) | −9.13 (−14.29 to −3.97) |
| Slope before change | 1.68−5 (1.14−5 to 2.23−5) | −0.022 (−0.038 to −0.007) |
| Slope after change | 1.52−5 (−7.56−5 to 4.52−5) | −0.082 (−0.250 to 0.086) |
| Controlled interrupted time series analysis for Scotland, controlling for northern England (robust analysis 3)† | ||
| Durbin Watson statistic | 1.80 (linear regression model) | 1.63 (linear regression model) |
| Level change | 0.71 (0.56 to 0.85) | −9.00 (−16.26 to −1.75) |
| Slope before change | −0.00014 (−0.00067 to 0.00040) | −0.028 (−0.047 to −0.008) |
| Slope after change | −0.007 (−0.013 to −0.001) | 0.0002 (−0.215 to 0.216) |
| Exclusion of households with no purchases during seven months before change or no purchases seven months after change (sensitivity analysis 1) | ||
| Durbin Watson statistic | 2.00 (linear regression model) | 1.72 (linear regression model) |
| Level change | 0.66 (0.53 to 0.78) | −10.14 (−16.59 to −3.69) |
| Slope before change | 0.001 (−0.003 to 0.006) | 0.030 (−0.195 to 0.256) |
| Slope after change | −0.004 (−0.008 to 0.001) | 0.122 (−0.103 to 0.348) |
*
Change is the introduction of minimum unit pricing in Scotland on 1 May 2018.
†
Northern England in this study represents Hartlepool, Stockton on Tees, County Durham, Tyne and Wear, Northumberland, Redcar and Cleveland, Middlesbrough, Cumbria, Lancashire, Merseyside, Greater Manchester, and Cheshire.