Table 1.
Model parameters: baseline values, ranges, and distributions for Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis.
| Variable | Value | Lower range | Upper range | Study | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 64 | 50 | 70 | CELESTIAL | NA |
| Cost diarrhea | 86.02 | 68.82 | 88.8 | GoodRX | gamma |
| Cost hand/foot syndrome | 74 | 59.2 | 88.8 | GoodRX | gamma |
| Cost hypertension | 7 | 5.6 | 8.4 | GoodRX | gamma |
| Duration diarrhea | 5 | 0 | 5 | Estimated | gamma |
| Duration fatigue | 10 | 0 | 10 | Estimated | gamma |
| Duration hand/foot syndrome | 14 | 0 | 14 | Estimated | gamma |
| Duration hypertension | 5 | 0 | 5 | Estimated | gamma |
| Disutility diarrhea | −0.017166667 | −0.0206 | −0.01373 | Lloyd et al.13 | beta |
| Disutility fatigue | −0.037166667 | −0.0446 | −0.02973 | Lloyd et al.13 | beta |
| Disutility hand/foot syndrome | −0.054133333 | −0.0232 | −0.01547 | Lloyd et al.13 | beta |
| Disutility hypertension | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | – |
| γ Placebo progression | 0.860515 | 0.8 | 0.9 | CELESTIAL | Triangular |
| γ Placebo survival | 0.992463 | 0.98 | 1.01 | CELESTIAL | Triangular |
| γ Cabozantinib progression | 0.116877 | 0.1 | 0.15 | CELESTIAL | Triangular |
| γ Cabozantinib survival | 0.992463 | 0.98 | 1.01 | CELESTIAL | Triangular |
| λ Placebo progression | 0.356518 | 0.3 | 0.5 | CELESTIAL | Triangular |
| λ Placebo survival | 0.0855573 | 0.08 | 0.09 | CELESTIAL | Triangular |
| λ Cabozantinib progression | 0.116877 | 0.1 | 0.15 | CELESTIAL | Triangular |
| λ Cabozantinib survival | 0.047884 | 0.045 | 0.05 | CELESTIAL | Triangular |
| Incidence diarrhea placebo | 0.02 | 0.014 | 0.016 | CELESTIAL | beta |
| Incidence diarrhea cabozantinib | 0.1 | 0.08 | 0.12 | CELESTIAL | beta |
| Incidence fatigue placebo | 0.04 | 0.032 | 0.048 | CELESTIAL | beta |
| Incidence fatigue cabozantinib | 0.1 | 0.08 | 0.12 | CELESTIAL | beta |
| Incidence hand/foot syndrome placebo | 0 | 0 | 0 | CELESTIAL | beta |
| Incidence hand/foot syndrome cabozantinib | 0.17 | 0.136 | 0.204 | CELESTIAL | beta |
| Incidence hypertension placebo | 0.02 | 0.016 | 0.024 | CELESTIAL | beta |
| Incidence hypertension cabozantinib | 0.16 | 0.128 | 0.192 | CELESTIAL | beta |
| Discount rate (annual) | 0.03 | 0 | 0.05 | – | |
| Utility of base (month) | 0.063333333 | 0.05 | 0.08 | Shlomai et al.9 | Normal |
| Utility of progression (month) | 0.056666667 | 0.04 | 0.07 | Shlomai et al.9 | Normal |
| Cost of cabozantinib 60 mg daily (28 days) | US$15,858 | US$12,686 | US$19,030 | GoodRX | Triangular |
| Cost of cabozantinib 36 mg daily (28 days) | US$9462 | – | – | GoodRX | – |