FIGURE 4. Women’s Health Study:

Distribution of AUC estimates from 250 age matched case control datasets of size n pairs (n = 100, 200, 400) drawn from the WHS cohort that included 24532 participants of whom 559 had observed events (incident cardiovascular disease). The AUC estimated from the full cohort from a model including age and HDL was 0.741 (shown by solid, red line in each panel). The distribution of AUC estimates from the matched datasets for each sample size n is shown in panels (A)-(D). AUC was estimated using proposed methods [panel (A)]; AUC estimates using methods described in the work of Qian et al¹⁵ but without sampling weights [panel (B)]; AUC estimates from a conditional logistic regression model with HDL as covariate [panel (C)]; and AUC estimates from a logistic regression model with age and HDL [panel (D)]. Methods in (B), (C) and (D) do not account for the matched sampling