Table 2.
Age‐ and sex‐specific 1‐y liver disease state transition probability matrices
| 1‐y transition probability | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Males | Females | |||||||
| Asymptomatic carrier | Chronic hepatitis | Cirrhosis | HCC | Asymptomatic carrier | Chronic hepatitis | Cirrhosis | HCC | |
| Initial state | ||||||||
| Age: 30‐39 y | ||||||||
| Asymptomatic carrier | 81.3% | 12.5% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 94.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chronic hepatitis | 97.8% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 99.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | ||
| Cirrhosis | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | ||||
| Age: 40‐49 y | ||||||||
| Asymptomatic carrier | 87.2% | 12.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 85.0% | 13.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Chronic hepatitis | 95.6% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 98.3% | 1.7% | 0.0% | ||
| Cirrhosis | 95.3% | 4.7% | 100.0% | 0.0% | ||||
| Age: 50‐59 y | ||||||||
| Asymptomatic carrier | 84.3% | 13.6% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 90.1% | 8.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Chronic hepatitis | 94.9% | 4.6% | 0.5% | 94.9% | 5.0% | 0.1% | ||
| Cirrhosis | 95.8% | 4.2% | 99.1% | 0.9% | ||||
| Age: 60‐69 y | ||||||||
| Asymptomatic carrier | 84.7% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 88.7% | 7.6% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Chronic hepatitis | 91.7% | 7.6% | 0.7% | 91.1% | 8.7% | 0.2% | ||
| Cirrhosis | 95.1% | 4.9% | 97.3% | 2.7% | ||||
| Age: ≥70 y | ||||||||
| Asymptomatic carrier | 83.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 0.3% | 89.4% | 7.0% | 3.4% | 0.2% |
| Chronic hepatitis | 88.4% | 9.6% | 2.0% | 92.4% | 7.4% | 0.2% | ||
| Cirrhosis | 95.2% | 4.8% | 96.7% | 3.3% | ||||
Abbreviation: HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma.