Table 1.

Models investigating whether the telomere length (RTL) of (a) day 4 nestlings and (b) day 12 nestlings predict survival to the start of the following breeding season. The Δ6 AICc top model sets are shown relative to the null model (in grey). Effect sizes are given with standard errors in parentheses. Continuous variables were centred and scaled. Estimates for sex are given for males relative to females. Int = intercept, AW = adjusted weight after implementation of the model nesting rule (Richards et al., 2011). The same predictors were tested in both global models, with RTL, age at sampling and body mass being the values of these traits at day 4 or day 12 depending on the analysis

Int	RTL	Age next season	Body mass	Prelay rain	Postlay rain	Sex (M)	df	logLik	AICc	ΔAICc	AW
(a) Day 4 nestlings (n = 82 nestlings from 59 broods in 30 groups)
−0.073	−1.063 (0.319)	−0.595 (0.274)					6	−48.56	110.2	0.00	0.814
−0.078	−0.843 (0.281)						5	−51.20	113.2	2.95	0.186
−0.027							4	−57.39	123.3	11.25	NA
(b) Day 12 nestlings (n = 146 nestlings from 100 broods in 36 groups)
0.604		−2.164 (0.878)	0.695 (0.319)	−1.703 (0.730)	−0.596 (0.375)		8	−84.68	186.4	0.00	0.368
0.931		−1.933 (0.861)	0.931 (0.420)	−1.718 (0.814)		−0.915 (0.683)	8	−84.98	187.0	0.60	0.273
0.597		−1.733 (0.774)	0.642 (0.327)	−1.399 (0.646)			7	−86.14	187.1	0.69	0.260
0.783		−2.141 (0.807)		−1.419 (0.635)			6	−88.63	189.9	3.45	0.065
0.459			0.779 (0.311)				5	−90.36	191.2	4.75	0.034
0.427							4	−95.06	198.4	12.00	NA

Predictors included in the global model but absent from the top model set: age at sampling, adult group size.