Table 2.

Models investigating whether day 4 nestling RTL predicts survival to fledging, for (a) all samples, (b) when “predated” nestlings were excluded and (c) when “expired” nestlings were excluded. The Δ6 AICc top model sets are shown relative to the null model (in grey). Effect sizes are given with standard errors in parentheses. All continuous variables were centred and scaled. Estimates for sex are given for males relative to females. Int = intercept, AW = adjusted weight after implementation of the model nesting rule (Richards et al., 2011). The same predictors were tested in all global models

Intercept	RTL	Body mass	Sex (M)	Group size	Postlay rain	df	logLik	AICc	Δ AICc	AW
(a) All samples (n = 82 nestlings from 59 broods from 30 groups)
0.354	−0.825 (0.316)	0.578 (0.295)		−0.424 (0.259)		7	−47.30	110.1	0.00	0.296
0.381	−0.888 (0.334)	0.686 (0.335)			−0.431 (0.293)	7	−47.42	110.4	0.24	0.262
0.367	−0.862 (0.327)	0.560 (0.307)				6	−48.66	110.4	0.33	0.251
−0.055	−0.845 (0.302)		0.760 (0.502)			6	−49.62	112.4	2.24	0.097
0.329	−0.804 (0.300)					5	−50.81	112.4	2.30	0.094
0.383						4	−56.15	120.8	9.99	0.002
(b) Excluding “predated” nestlings (leaves n = 68 nestlings from 52 broods from 30 groups)
0.859		0.571 (0.287)				5	−39.86	90.7	0.00	0.733
0.806						4	−42.04	92.7	2.01	0.267
(c) Excluding “expired” nestlings (leaves n = 74 nestlings from 55 broods from 30 groups)
0.941	−1.229 (0.533)				−0.673 (0.479)	6	−40.21	93.7	0.00	0.51
8.242						4	−42.59	93.8	0.08	0.49

Predictors included in the global model for (a) but absent from the top model set: age at sampling, prelay rain.