Table 3.
Models investigating whether a nestling's rate of change in telomere length (ΔRTL) from day 4 to day 12 predicts their survival to the start of the following breeding season, for (a) all data, (b) for ΔRTL data below the value that yields the peak of the quadratic and (c) for ΔRTL data above the value that yields the peak of the quadratic. The Δ6 AICc top model sets are shown relative to the null model (shown in grey). The best performing model that contained day 4 RTL is included in italics for reference (though was excluded from the top model set following the nesting rule; Richards et al., 2011) Effect sizes are given with standard errors in parentheses. Continuous variables were centred and scaled. Int = intercept, AW = adjusted weight. Where variables were not present in the global model NAs are given
| Int | Day 12 body mass | Day 4 RTL | ΔRTL | ΔRTL2 | df | logLik | AICc | ΔAICc | AW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) All data (n = 39) | |||||||||
| 1.150 | 1.007 (0.573) | 1.036 (0.605) | −1.180 (0.631) | 6 | −18.337 | 51.3 | 0.00 | 0.496 | |
| 1.366 | 0.747 (0.516) | −1.351 (0.574) | 5 | −20.256 | 52.3 | 1.03 | 0.296 | ||
| 0.306 | 1.299 (0.554) | 0.862 (0.446) | 5 | −21.199 | 54.2 | 2.92 | 0.115 | ||
| 1.148 | 0.996 (0.581) | −0.057 (0.524) | 0.986 (0.754) | −1.172 (0.631) | 7 | −18.33 | 54.3 | 2.98 | NA |
| 0.381 | 0.981 (0.584) | −0.688 (0.472) | 5 | −22.099 | 56.0 | 4.72 | 0.047 | ||
| 0.358 | 0.903 (0.430) | 4 | −23.451 | 56.1 | 4.78 | 0.045 | |||
| 0.363 | 3 | −26.401 | 59.5 | 8.19 | NA | ||||
| (b) Data below the peak of the quadratic (n = 26) | |||||||||
| 0.533 | 2.033 (0.828) | NA | 2 | −11.688 | 27.9 | 0.00 | 1.00 | ||
| 0.547 | −0.191 (0.602) | 1.900 (0.908) | NA | 3 | −11.64 | 30.37 | 2.47 | NA | |
| 0.470 | NA | 2 | −17.323 | 36.8 | 8.92 | NA | |||
| (c) Data above the peak of the quadratic (n = 13) | |||||||||
| 0.1542 | NA | 3 | −8.972 | 26.6 | 0.00 | 1.00 | |||
Predictors included in the global model for (a) but absent from the top model set: day 4 RTL, age at the start of the following breeding season, prelay rainfall, postlay rainfall.