TABLE 5.
Median absolute percentage error for simulation 2
| Model | % Event Observed | 25% | 50% | 75% | 25% | 50% | 75% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Method | Nevent = 100 | Nevent = 500 | |||||
| Weibull | Freq | 7.65 | 4.69 | 2.71 | 4.39 | 2.52 | 1.46 |
| Bayes | 7.78 | 4.64 | 2.77 | 4.51 | 2.57 | 1.41 | |
| Lognormal | Freq | 9.87 | 5.68 | 3.33 | 4.69 | 2.87 | 1.62 |
| Bayes | 8.30 | 4.94 | 3.04 | 4.61 | 2.82 | 1.58 | |
| Gompertz | Freq | 8.32 | 5.64 | 3.56 | 4.47 | 2.53 | 1.53 |
| Bayes | 7.50 | 4.73 | 2.78 | 4.48 | 2.58 | 1.49 | |
| Loglogistic | Freq | 9.18 | 5.67 | 3.23 | 4.73 | 2.96 | 1.70 |
| Bayes | 9.06 | 5.63 | 3.19 | 4.71 | 2.91 | 1.71 | |
| PredSynth | Freq | 7.92 | 4.93 | 2.93 | 4.48 | 2.66 | 1.48 |
| (Average) | Bayes | 7.95 | 4.94 | 2.90 | 4.52 | 2.69 | 1.51 |
| PredSynth | Freq | 7.94 | 4.95 | 2.88 | 4.38 | 2.49 | 1.53 |
| (MSPE) | Bayes | 7.58 | 4.77 | 2.84 | 4.54 | 2.73 | 1.62 |
| PredSynth | Freq | 7.69 | 4.85 | 2.90 | 4.50 | 2.61 | 1.44 |
| (Vote) | Bayes | 7.78 | 4.87 | 2.85 | 4.49 | 2.74 | 1.50 |
Abbreviation: MSPE, minimum squared prediction error.