Table 3.
Diabetes prediction equation studies: variables, results, and main findings.
| Equation number | Equation | Reference | Diabetes definition | Biomarkers/variables | Results in African descent population ONLY | Diabetes discrimination in African descent population ONLY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Prevalence prediction equation studies | ||||||
| 1 | Cambridge Risk Score | Masconi et al. (26) | Fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or 2 h OGTT ≥200 mg/dL |
Sex, HTN Rx, steroid Rx, age, BMI, family Hx of DM, smoking | C-statistic: 0.67 (Total Pop) C-statistic: 0.67 (men) C-statistic: 0.67 (women) |
Poor |
| 2 | Cambridge Risk Score | Spijkerman et al. (25) | Fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or A1C ≥6.5%# |
Sex, HTN Rx, steroid Rx, age, BMI, family Hx of DM, smoking | AROC: 0.67 | Poor |
| 3 | FINDRISC, Original | Omech et al. (28) | A1C ≥6.5% | Age, BMI, WC, HTN Rx, family Hx DM, daily fruit/berries/vegetables, physical activity | AROC: 0.63 | Poor |
| 4 | FINDRISC, Original | Zhang et al. (29) | Fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or 2h OGTT ≥200 mg/dL or A1C ≥6.5% or Self-reported diagnosis of diabetes |
Age, BMI, WC, HTN Rx, family Hx DM, daily fruit/berries/vegetables, physical activity | AROC: 0.76 | Acceptable |
| 5 | FINDRISC, Simplified | Masconi et al. (26) | Fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or 2 h OGTT ≥200 mg/dL |
Age, BMI, WC, HTN Rx, Hx high blood glucose | C-statistic: 0.67 (Total Pop) C-statistic: 0.70 (men) C-statistic: 0.66 (women) |
Poor |
| 6 | Kuwaiti | Masconi et al. (26) | Fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or 2h OGTT ≥200 mg/dL |
Family Hx of DM, HTN Rx, age, WC | C-statistic: 0.68 (Total Pop) C-statistic: 0.70 (men) C-statistic: 0.67 (women) |
Poor |
| 7 | Omani | Masconi et al. (26) | Fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or 2 h OGTT ≥200 mg/dL |
Age, WC, BMI, family Hx of DM, hypertension | C-statistic: 0.66 (Total Pop) C-statistic: 0.62 (men) C-statistic: 0.66 (women) |
Poor |
| 8 | Rotterdam Predictive Model | Masconi et al. (26) | Fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or 2 h OGTT ≥200 mg/dL |
Age, sex, HTN Rx, BMI | C-statistic: 0.64 (Total Pop) C-statistic: 0.62 (men) C-statistic: 0.66 (women) |
Poor |
| 9 | SUNSET Risk Score | Bindraban et al. (27) | Fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL and/or Self-reported diagnosis of diabetes |
Age, BMI, WC, resting heart rate, family Hx of DM, hypertension or HTN Rx, family Hx of CVD, ethnicity(race) | AROC 0.79 | Acceptable |
| B. Incidence prediction equation studies | ||||||
| 10 | ARIC | Lacy et al. (31) | ADA 2004: Fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or 2 h OGTT ≥200 mg/dL ADA 2010: Fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or 2 h OGTT ≥200 mg/dL or A1C ≥6.5% |
Age, race, parent Hx of DM, fasting glucose, SBP, WC, HGT, HDL, TG. | AROC: 0.80 (ADA 2004) AROC: 0.80 (ADA 2010 Re-estimated) |
Excellent |
| 11 | ARIC | Mann et al. (32) | Fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or Self-reported hypoglycemic Rx or insulin |
Age, race, parent Hx of DM, fasting glucose, SBP, WC, HGT, HDL, TG | C-statistic: 0.81 | Excellent |
| 12 | ARIC+A1C | Lacy et al. (31) | Fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or 2 h OGTT ≥200 mg/dL or A1C ≥6.5% |
Age, parent Hx of DM, fasting glucose, SBP, WC, HGT, HDL, TG, A1C | AROC: 0.82 | Excellent |
| 13 | FINDRISC, Modified | Kulkarni et al. (30) | Fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or Self-reported Dx of diabetes by a physician or Self-reported hypoglycemic Rx |
Age, BMI, WC, HTN Rx, Hx hyperglycemia | AROC: 0.70 (men) AROC: 0.71 (women) |
Acceptable |
| 14 | Framingham Offspring Study | Mann et al. (32) | Fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or Self-reported hypoglycemic Rx or insulin |
Fasting glucose, BMI, HDL, TG, hypertension, family Hx of DM | C-statistic: 0.80 | Excellent |
| 15 | San Antonio Heart Study | Mann et al. (32) | Fasting glucose ≥126 mg/dL or Self-reported hypoglycemic Rx or insulin |
Age, sex, race, fasting glucose, SBP, HDL, BMI, family Hx of DM. | C-statistic: 0.80 | Excellent |
T2DM, Type 2 diabetes mellitus; DM, diabetes mellitus; Hx, history; Rx, prescription; HGT, height; FPG, fasting plasma glucose; FINDRISC, Finnish Diabetes Risk Score; HDL, high density lipoprotein; SBP, systolic blood pressure; WC, waist circumference; TG, triglycerides; OGTT, oral glucose tolerance test; AROC, area under the receiver operator characteristic curve; CVD, cardiovascular disease; HTN Rx, Anti-hypertension medication; BMI, Body mass index; ARIC, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities.
#
Although the ADA diagnostic criteria for diabetes did not include A1C at the time of this study, Spijkerman et al. who based their study design on survey data cited the value of using A1C for diabetes diagnosis in the absence of fasting plasma glucose values.