Table 2.

Proportion of short and long epidemics over generations of selection, for the genetic variance of 0.5

Generation	Selection on susceptibility						Selection on susceptibility and infectivity
	No epidemic	se	Short	se	Long	se	No epidemic	se	Short	se	Long	se
0	0.28	0.01	0.24	0.01	0.24	0.01	0.28	0.01	0.24	0.01	0.24	0.01
1	0.31	0.01	0.24	0.01	0.24	0.01	0.35	0.01	0.24	0.01	0.23	<10−2
2	0.34	0.01	0.26	0.01	0.23	0.01	0.41	0.01	0.28	0.01	0.18	0.01
3	0.37	0.01	0.25	0.01	0.22	0.01	0.46	0.01	0.30	0.01	0.14	<10−2
4	0.40	0.01	0.27	0.01	0.20	0.01	0.53	0.01	0.32	0.01	0.08	<10−2
5	0.42	0.01	0.28	0.01	0.18	0.01	0.57	0.01	0.33	0.01	0.06	<10−2
6	0.46	0.01	0.29	0.01	0.15	<10−2	0.63	0.01	0.31	0.01	0.03	<10−2
7	0.50	0.01	0.30	0.01	0.11	0.01	0.70	0.01	0.26	0.01	0.02	<10−2
8	0.51	0.01	0.31	0.01	0.10	<10−2	0.74	0.01	0.24	0.01	0.01	<10−2
9	0.54	0.01	0.32	0.01	0.08	<10−2	0.78	<10−2	0.20	<10−2	0.01	<10−2
10	0.57	0.01	0.31	0.01	0.06	<10−2	0.83	<10−2	0.16	<10−2	0.00	<10−2
11	0.61	0.01	0.30	0.01	0.04	<10−2	0.86	0.01	0.13	<10−2	0.00	<10−2
12	0.62	0.01	0.31	0.01	0.04	<10−2	0.89	<10−2	0.10	<10−2	0.00	<10−2
13	0.65	0.01	0.29	0.01	0.03	<10−2	0.91	<10−2	0.09	<10−2	0.00	<10−2
14	0.68	0.01	0.27	0.01	0.02	<10−2	0.93	<10−2	0.07	<10−2	0.00	<10−2
15	0.71	0.01	0.26	0.01	0.01	<10−2	0.95	<10−2	0.05	<10−2	0.00	<10−2
16	0.74	0.01	0.23	0.01	0.01	<10−2	0.95	<10−2	0.04	<10−2	0.00	<10−2
17	0.76	0.01	0.22	0.01	0.01	<10−2	0.97	<10−2	0.03	<10−2	0.00	<10−2
18	0.77	0.01	0.21	0.01	0.01	<10−2	0.98	<10−2	0.02	<10−2	0.00	<10−2
19	0.80	<10−2	0.19	<10−2	0.01	<10−2	0.98	<10−2	0.02	<10−2	0.00	<10−2
20	0.82	<10−2	0.17	<10−2	0.00	<10−2	0.99	<10−2	0.01	<10−2	0.00	<10−2

Proportions of ‘short’, ‘medium’ and ‘long’ epidemics classified on the basis of the 33% and 66% percentiles of the duration of epidemics in the base generation, for the scenarios of selection on susceptibility alone (with accuracy 0.7), and selection on both susceptbility and infectivity (with accuracies 0.7)