Table 3.

Independent effects of baseline predictors for the prediction of time of dementia onset over 12 years (multivariable mixed-effects Cox regression, n = 3201)

Baseline predictors		Model with GP+SCD+MMSE		Model with GP+MMSE		Model with SCD+MMSE		Model with GP+SCD
		HR (95% CI)	P-value	HR (95% CI)	P-value	HR (95% CI)	P-value	HR (95% CI)	P-value
Age (per 1 year older)		1.10 (1.08 to 1.12)	<0.001	1.10 (1.08 to 1.12)	<0.001	1.11 (1.09 to 1.14)	<0.001	1.12 (1.09 to 1.14)	<0.001
Female (ref. male)		1.07 (0.90 to 1.27)	0.45	1.10 (0.93 to 1.30)	0.27	1.06 (0.89 to 1.25)	0.51	1.09 (0.92 to 1.29)	0.32
Education (ref. low)	Intermediate	1.01 (0.85 to 1.21)	0.91	1.02 (0.86 to 1.22)	0.80	0.98 (0.82 to 1.17)	0.80	0.84 (0.71 to 1.01)	0.056
	High	1.15 (0.89 to 1.51)	0.29	1.18 (0.90 to 1.54)	0.22	1.12 (0.86 to 1.46)	0.39	0.85 (0.65 to 1.10)	0.21
GP judgement (ref. GDS 1)	GDS 2	1.58 (1.29 to 1.92)	<0.001	1.65 (1.36 to 2.01)	<0.001	—	—	1.63 (1.34 to 1.98)	<0.001
	GDS 3	1.98 (1.58 to 2.49)	<0.001	2.15 (1.71 to 2.69)	<0.001	—	—	2.32 (1.85 to 2.90)	<0.001
	GDS ≥4	3.45 (2.59 to 4.59)	<0.001	3.73 (2.81 to 4.95)	<0.001	—	—	4.19 (3.16 to 5.55)	<0.001
SCD (ref. no SCD)	− Worry	1.24 (1.03 to 1.48)	0.020	—	—	1.27 (1.07 to 1.52)	0.007	1.26 (1.05 to 1.50)	0.012
	+ Worry	2.11 (1.72 to 2.57)	<0.001	—	—	2.31 (1.89 to 2.81)	<0.001	2.15 (1.76 to 2.62)	<0.001
MMSE (per 1 point less)		1.31 (1.26 to 1.36)	<0.001	1.31 (1.26 to 1.37)	<0.001	1.33 (1.28 to 1.39)	<0.001	—	—
Model fit (BIC)a		5840.42		5873.17		5872.06		5960.15

^aLower values indicating better fit. BIC = Bayesian information criterion. GDS = Global Deterioration Scale (7-point scale from 1 to 7 indicating increasing cognitive impairment). HR = hazard ratio. MMSE = Mini-Mental State Examination. SCD = subjective cognitive decline.