Table 3.
Composite prediction models developed with multivariate logistic regression analysis for malignant risk estimation in individuals with lung nodules
| Model | Derivation cohort | External validation | Predictors of malignancy | AUC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayo Clinic model[38] | 639 patients with newly discovered solitary nodules (4-30 mm) in CXR Single center, USA |
Yes | Age Smoking Personal cancer history Nodule diameter Spiculation Upper lobe location |
0.83 (derivation) 0.78-0.90 (validation)[99,100,101,102,103] |
| Herder model[102] | 106 patients with indeterminate nodules based on Mayo Clinic model submitted to PET Single center, Netherlands |
Yes | As above plus PET findings classified according to FDG avidity | 0.92 (derivation and validation)[103] |
| Veterans Administration model[39] | 375 patients with newly discovered solitary nodules (7-30 mm) in CXR Multicenter, USA |
Yes | Age Smoking Quit time Nodule diameter |
0.79 (derivation) 0.68-0.74 (validation)[99,100,103] |
| Brock University model[10] | Two cohorts with a total of 2961 current or former smokers submitted to LDCT screening Multicenter, Canada |
Yes | Age Gender Family history of cancer Emphysema Nodule size Part solid attenuation Upper lobe location Nodule count xybSpiculation |
0.97 (derivation) 0.90 (validation)[103] |
| Peking University People’s model[40] | 371 patients with surgically resected solitary nodules Single center, China |
Yes | Age Nodule diameter Clear border Calcification Spiculation Family history of cancer |
0.89 (derivation) 0.81 (validation)[99] |
| TREAT model[104] | 606 patients with solitary nodules or masses referred to a thoracic surgeon for suspected or known lung cancer Single center, USA |
Yes (same publication) | Age and gender Body mass index COPD (FEV1) Smoking (pack-years) Personal cancer history Preoperative symptoms Lesion size, growth, location Spiculation FDG-PET avidity |
0.87 (derivation) 0.89 (validation) |
AUC=Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, FDG=Fluorodeoxyglucose, FEV1=Forced expiratory volume in one second, CXR=Chest X-ray, PET=Positron emission tomography, LDCT=Low-dose computed tomography, COPD=Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease