Table 3. Model and prior fits.
a) The winning model is that with the lowest Leave-One-Out Information Criterion (LOOIC). The lowest two numbers (for bandit4arm_lapse and bandit4arm_lapse_decay) are displayed in bold. b) The lowest LOOIC is then obtained when the top two models are fit with two priors: one for symptomatic and one for healthy individuals (Diagnosis priors). † Note that fitting the decay model with a single prior did not converge rendering the LOOIC value meaningless.
| a) Model | LOOIC |
|---|---|
| bandit4arm | 128456 |
| bandit4arm_lapse | 128198 |
| igt_pvl_decay | 132008 |
| igt_pvl_delta | 131774 |
| bandit4arm_2par_lapse | 140144 |
| bandit4arm_singleA_lapse | 129120 |
| bandit4arm_lapse_decay | 126289 |
| b) Prior | LOOIC | |
|---|---|---|
| bandit4arm_lapse | bandit4arm_lapse_decay | |
| Diagnosis and Condition Priors (4) | 128198 | 126289 |
| Diagnosis Priors (2) | 128166 | 126094 |
| Condition Priors (2) | 128225 | 126233 |
| Single Prior (1) | 128174 | † |