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. 2019 Jun 24;127(6):067010. doi: 10.1289/EHP4615

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EHP is an open-access journal published with support from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Institutes of Health. All content is public domain unless otherwise noted.

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Figure 1 is a conceptual diagram showing the key drivers of the Lyme disease risk. — Theoretical framework and key drivers of Lyme disease risk dynamics. Climate change: (1) Climate influences tick phenology and distribution of ticks; (2) climate suitability influences distribution of tick hosts (e.g., deer, rodents, and birds); (3) climate influences growth of plant species and profitability of land, driving land-use/cover change. Socioeconomic change: (4) Socioeconomics influence the demand and preferences for how land is used, which affects conversion between land cover types. Land cover change: (5) Land cover influences host type and abundance as well as microclimate and, hence, (6) distribution of ticks. Host distribution change: (7) Availability of hosts influences tick survival and pathogen transmission.