Table 1.

The results of the systematic review. The characteristics and results of the included papers are described and compared with MISCAN modeling estimates

Article reference	Cancer type	Name of the measured parameter	Results of the measured parameter	Model type	Modelled population	Screen program	Timeframe for model predictions	Comparing results with MISCAN estimates
Carreras, 34	Lung	All‐cause smoking attributable deaths	Reduction for the screened population after 5, 15, 25 years: Women: 1.4%, 1.5%, 2.3% Men: 1.8%, 1.6%, 1.9%	Model type is not clearly defied Modeling assumptions were based on NLST trial	Italian population between 1986 and 2009 (model adjusted with Italian smoking habits)	Three rounds of annual CT screening for current and former heavy smokers Age range: 55‐74 years	2015‐2020 2015‐2030 2015‐2040 (5, 15 and 25 years)	Not comparable MISCAN estimates all‐cause deaths and not smoking‐attributable death.
Manser, 35	Lung	All‐cause mortality	Reduction in all‐cause mortality ‐ screening vs. control arm: 2.1%	Markov model: Using 10 different health states with a cycle period of 3 months	Two hypothetical Australian cohorts: Screen and control arm of 10 000 high‐risk male smokers	Annual CT screening for high‐risk male current smokersa Age range 60‐64 years	15 years after the onset of screening	Comparable MISCAN estimates: 1.9% after 15 years
McMahon, 36	Lung	Number of all‐cause deaths	Relative reduction for the cohort ‐ screening vs. control arm 6 years: 3.6% (157 vs. 162.8) 10 years: 2.9% (293.6 vs. 302.3) 15 years: 1.9% (501 vs. 510.7)	Lung Cancer Policy Model: Patient‐level microsimulation model considering individual heterogeneity in risk factors and event rates.	Mayo Clinic helical CT screening study: 1520 participants, mean age: 59 years, enrollment: January to December 1999	Annual helical CT examinations for current and former smokers Age range: 50‐85 years	6, 10 and 15 years after the study enrollment	Comparable MISCAN estimates: 2.3%, 2.4% and 1.9% after 6, 10 and 15 years respectively
Marshall, 37	Breast	Number of all‐cause deaths	Relative reduction for 1000 women ‐ screening vs. control arm Age 40‐75:1.5% (271 vs. 275) Age 50‐75:1.1% (272 vs. 275)	Mathematical model based on US mortality rates Database: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention	US women	Biennial mammography screening Age range: 40‐75 and 50‐75 years	From age 40 until age 75	Comparable with limitation MISCAN uses different age range: screening age 50‐69 MISCAN estimates: 1.1% after 10‐20 years
Pharoah, 38	Breast	Number of all cause deaths	Relative reduction for the cohort ‐ screening vs. control arm: 0.4% (217 192 vs. 217 983)	Mathematical model based on life tables of England and Wales using data from Office for National Statistics	729 000 50‐year old women in 2009 in England and Wales 364 500 for both the screen and control arms	Mammography at age 50 and every three years thereafter until the age of 70	35 years of follow‐up	Comparable with limitation MISCAN uses biennial screening instead of every three year MISCAN estimates: 0.3% after 35 years
Sigurdsson, 39	Colon	All deaths (also referred as all premature deaths)	Reduction due to screening program by country Denmark: 0.8%; Finland: 0.5%; Iceland: 0.6%; Norway: 0.9%; Sweden: 0.8%	Mathematical model based on Cochrane meta‐analysis, national databanks from Nordic countries and WHO mortality database	Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden population in 2009 Iceland population for the period 2005‐2009	Biannually FOBT screening for 10 years Age range: 55‐74 years	10 years for the age group 55‐65 at the start	Comparable with limitation MISCAN uses FIT screening test MISCAN estimates: 0.6% after 10 years
Stang, 9	Breast	Age –standardized mortality rates for all‐cause mortality	Expected reduction all‐cause mortality rate with screening UK (England & Wales): 1.7%; Germany: 1.8%	Mathematical model based on disease‐specific relative rate reduction from trials and expected all‐cause mortality rate	UK (England & Wales) and Germany	Mammography age 50‐69 years	Not reported (in references 11 years of follow‐up)	Comparable MISCAN estimates: 1.2% after 11 years
Stang, 9	Colon	Age –standardized mortality rates for all‐cause mortality	Expected reduction all‐cause mortality rate with screening UK (England & Wales): 1.2%; Germany: 1.0%	Mathematical model based on disease‐specific relative rate reduction from trials and expected all‐cause mortality rate	UK (England & Wales) and Germany	Flexible sigmoidoscopy age 55‐64 years	Not reported (in references 11‐12 years of follow‐up)	Comparable MISCAN estimates: 0.8% after 11 years

Abbreviations: CT, computed tomography; US, United States of America; WHO, World Health Organization, FOBT, fecal occult blood test, NLST, National Lung Screening Trial.

^aIn sensitivity analyses also female current smokers and other age groups.